Investing 102

[GregWeld]

I should add regarding "knowing when to take a profit".....


That I usually counter a profit sale with a loss sale.... If there is such an opportunity. THIS IS REALLY ONLY DONE WHEN IN A TAXABLE ACCOUNT....

It keeps the taxes lower on the gain and helps take the sting out of the loss sale.

It would be really nice if every stock pic was a winner but they're not... and knowing when to sell and "retrain" those slacker employees is something that is every bit as hard to know, as it is to know when to take that gain.

[Sieg]

Congratulations on post number 2000!

Do I start getting a quarterly dividend for reading all of them?

Oh, wait, I am! :unibrow:

[GregWeld]

Congratulations on post number 2000!

Do I start getting a quarterly dividend for reading all of them?

Oh, wait, I am! :unibrow:



Amazing isn't it? 2000 posts.... probably 1900 of them mine...:lol:


More importantly --- I hope lots of people are forever enlightened about saving and investing - and that they're on their way to a better retirement than they otherwise might have been.

I'd love nothing better than to read on post number 10,000 that someone is a newly minted paper millionaire having gotten started way back in 2011 with this thread. :cheers:

[glassman]

Me too Greg, me too. You have helped dozens of us here gain knowledge, and knowledge is power. Thank you once again, from a procrastinator...Mike

[MoparCar]

I'm still reading daily! This thread has me doing sooooo much more with money and plain and simple time of reading investments and many other things. Thank you all! (especially GW since honestly this is his child )

Thanks, thanks, thanks.......

[GregWeld]

I'm still reading daily! This thread has me doing sooooo much more with money and plain and simple time of reading investments and many other things. Thank you all! (especially GW since honestly this is his child )

Thanks, thanks, thanks.......



Glad to hear it! :cheers: :woot:

[bdahlg68]

I'd love nothing better than to read on post number 10,000 that someone is a newly minted paper millionaire having gotten started way back in 2011 with this thread. :cheers:

Fingers crossed and money invested! :thumbsup:

[pw2006]

Thanks Greg, this is an awesome thread. Keep the lessons coming! :cheers:

[Rybar]

Yes thank you. This has been a great thread and really opened my eyes and mind to investments other than property. :lateral:

[Bucketlist2012]

I was well on my way before this thread, but thank you Greg for keeping me inspired and focused...


I am always up for learning more...:thumbsup: :lateral:

[GregWeld]

Always glad to see people are still reading. Just not much to post about right now. We've covered most all of the basics and I don't want this to turn into a "about Greg" thread because that's not what it's about. Every day I think about something to post --- but then it's not pertinent to 102 investing. So it's not that I'm not thinking about the thread -- it's just that there has to be a reason and something to post about that will HELP someone.

To post about daily ups and downs of the market is pretty pointless... and I personally never wanted the thread to be about which stock to buy or when to sell etc unless it's an example for the market in general (like the Facebook ordeal).

We're in a very unique position right now --- an election -- europe -- our own issues etc. My guess is - when we look back in a couple years - this will be viewed as an anomaly as markets go on a longer term basis. There is just so much uncertainty! I can't ever remember a stranger time for the WORLD. Politically and monetarily the world is really just a complete mess! In the meantime -- I've found plenty to be happy about and that for me is the focus. It's still a two year wait list for a Ferrari 458 Spider.... houses are selling... people around me are busy and doing "stuff" - going on trips etc.... so the take-away is that 80+% of the folks are what really count. They have jobs - they pay their mortgage - and life goes on. Invest in that... and let the rest of the stuff just be "news making headlines". :cheers:

[Rybar]

How about talking about BPT and the hammering it took the last few days!!

I am trying to figure out why, it's on it's way back up a little. But I'm trying to figure out what happened.

[Bucketlist2012]

Seems to have something to do with future reports on the production decline and worry that it may be overvalued.

Talk of this pushed the trading and sell off up 20 fold..

There is a problem valuing future production and value.

I am still long on BPT.. If today is an indication , it should bounce back..

At 9% , it is a big payer, but also can go sideways quickly..

I use it as a small play in my mix, but I will hang on to it.

When it went down, the sell off accelerated, causing it to drop further..

Seeking Alpha has some info, and look up "blood in the bay".

[GregWeld]

How about talking about BPT and the hammering it took the last few days!!

I am trying to figure out why, it's on it's way back up a little. But I'm trying to figure out what happened.



Don't read anything into this response except as it pertains to ALL reading this thread... it's not really a response to YOU but a response to all.

I have said time and time again that it is up to YOU (all) to understand what it is you own and WHY you own it. Simply buying some name that "others" own or recommend is the surest way I know to loose your arse!

These "trusts" have all manor of tax considerations --- they're not just simple dividend payers! They pay outsized "dividends" but they're not just straight dividends - the dividend is used to reduce your share cost and blah blah blah... so they get different treatment. Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's) are similar --- such as Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP).... Unlike straight up dividends -- you're going to get a bunch of tax forms mailed to you - and your accountant is going to have to deal with them!

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE GUYS ---- Do some research and or ask some questions before buying some of this stuff. These are different than just buying shares in a "normal" company.


Nothing wrong with owning them! I'm just saying that when you're investing your hard earned money -- you've got to understand what you're buying! If you were buying a car -- you'd know every damn detail! Don't treat investing any differently. If you don't understand it --- move on --- or keep working on the details until you really "get it".

It's like the LLC's I'm invested in for apartments.... you don't want to put your money in them and then 3 or 4 years from now call the management up and say -- "hey dude! I need 100K from this investment will you send me a check?"..... UH..... NO!! That ain't how they work. You don't want to find that out AFTER you've put in your money!

These trusts and MLP's have been absolute cash cows.... but right now we have "UNCERTAINTY" over the tax treatment with the current administration talking big about how they plan to rob the rich to feed the poor etc..... so there's lots of movement of money in this stuff. People don't like standing in front of a freight train - so the big money just chooses to move it. When that happens --- you've got more sellers than buyers and bada bing bada boom - you get a decline in the price. The good news is -- that as the price goes down - the new buyers (at the lower price) get a better percentage dividend!

These trusts and MLP's are energy price sensitive! They are - after all - energy plays. If the price of oil is high -- they'll get a bigger check and their costs pretty much stay the same (the spread) -- so the payout will be bigger.... conversely as oil declines so does the payout. When you look at the dividend payout of BPT it's all over the board... it's always decent as a percentage - but it's all over the board as a dollar amount.

[Bucketlist2012]

As Greg said, everyone has to do their research.

I apologize for recommending something. Right after I did, it turned south..

So i will stick to general Information on Investing and not specific Investments.

:cheers: :lateral:

[GregWeld]

As Greg said, everyone has to do their research.

I apologize for recommending something. Right after I did, it turned south..

So i will stick to general Information on Investing and not specific Investments.

:cheers: :lateral:




It never fails Mike.... You can have a stock run to the moon... the minute you talk someone into buying it - DOWN SHE GOES!

I'd buy BPT in a heartbeat - and especially at these lower prices! Anybody that bought on my birthday (yesterday) is picking up an almost 12% dividend!


Sorry -- did the wrong math -- it's was a 12% dividend not a 14%

[Rybar]

Thanks you guys, I appreciate the lesson. Although I bought to hold so I'm not all that worried as Mike said. Even at the high price it was still a very good yeild for the dividend.

I have now gotten my wife to invest and am going to invest savings for my 3 kids now as well.

[Bucketlist2012]

Happy Birthday Greg...:thumbsup: :cheers:

[GregWeld]

Happy Birthday Greg...:thumbsup: :cheers:

Thanks Mike! I made it all the way to 59 so far!


EEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAA:cheers:

[Sieg]

Happy Birthday Greg! :thumbsup:

[96z28ss]

happy B-day

[Bucketlist2012]

Thanks Mike! I made it all the way to 59 so far!


EEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAA:cheers:

Well Done...I made it to 49 and all hell broke loose..I am now 52 and getting my health back I hope.

My positive thinking is I am planning my Portfolio 30 to 40 years out, just in case..

If not, oh well, but if so, I can pay to have my Arse wiped..

Of course I had a GREAT day in the market, except for..........Yep. BPT...:willy:

Such is Life... Health willing, I hope to see you at an event one day..:cheers:

[GregWeld]

So ---- as I've stated many times in the past "big money" (pro money) is way on top of their game compared to "us"..... they get their info faster... they're paid to stay abreast of any minutia in the markets....

So -- if you're in BPT you might want to investigate and read this. There are several links to more detail but this might tell you why you're getting your arses handed to you for right now.



http://www.investingdaily.com/15602/bp-prudhoe-bay-and-us-energy-royalty-trusts-yield-hogs-get-slaughtered


Then there is a link to the main article that most likely started the sell off:


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577609291984902960.html

[transam]

It never fails Mike.... You can have a stock run to the moon... the minute you talk someone into buying it - DOWN SHE GOES!

I'd buy BPT in a heartbeat - and especially at these lower prices! Anybody that bought on my birthday (yesterday) is picking up an almost 12% dividend!


Sorry -- did the wrong math -- it's was a 12% dividend not a 14%


Thats why i never tell people what i invest in, only the few that know and trust me, it always goes the same way, friend/relative begs for "tips" and it goes south and they think you were just doing a pump and dump. But when it goes right they just spend their time imagining how much you made and forget they just made money for nothing.

[GregWeld]

Here's something else that EVERYONE needs to be very wary of.... I've said it in past posts -- but it bears repeating:

If you THINK Obama is going to win -- and the Democrats retain control of the Senate....(the Republicans have control of the HOUSE)... Then you need to be prepared for what will happen regarding taxes etc - and that will have a big impact on dividends/interest etc. Because these folks are bound and determined to raise taxes so they can spend more.

If you THINK Romney is going to win -- then prepare for the market to go UP because people will feel "safe" about their investments and the tax situation.

While this seems like a long time from now --- we have a MAJOR election in NOVEMBER -- mere days from now. We also have these clowns returning from vacation after Labor Day... and they'll all be making a bunch of half witted statements in favor or his or her "guy". These people don't care about "markets" and they don't really care about your investments and or what their half witted statements affect. They're politicians - they only really care about getting and staying in control.

The MARKET will signal early what it thinks about where we're headed. You need to pay attention to this because it WILL affect you. Over a real long term not so much -- and I'm not saying SELL and I'm not saying BUY -- I'm saying PAY ATTENTION and see how it relates to your investments so that you understand why something is or isn't happening.


JUST TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR --- When I say "these clowns" and "these people" --- I MEAN BOTH SIDES.... Democrats and Republicans

[Bucketlist2012]

I agree with your Last post..

Although it has to do with Politics, we are not being Political..More like the economics that are a big part of the Political system.

I won't talk sides, but i know my strategy will be the same if Obama stays, and it will change if Romney comes in..

For me, the Federal Reserve and the Debt are a portion of my Strategy...

No anger or hate for one side or the other...Strictly Business...

And the uncertainty that Greg talks about is very High, and it has been for a long time..I am playing both sides of the fence so as not to get caught behind one fence if things go a way i did not think it would...Uncertainty brings caution..

The good thing is that to make this kind of money in this enviornment, just wait when things actually turn certain and we really go bullish...

But we won't really know until the first of 2013...Taxes, Leaders, a lot to be waiting on.. Soon we will know..

But I stay Invested all the time...No sitting on the sidelines in cash...Only enough for an emergency fund, and to purchase more if the time becomes right..And for monthly bills....All the rest are employee's at work..

[WSSix]

Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's) are similar --- such as Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP).... Unlike straight up dividends -- you're going to get a bunch of tax forms mailed to you - and your accountant is going to have to deal with them!



Is this only if you sell the stock or will this be something anyone who owns stock in KPM will have to deal with every year?

Happy Birthday Greg.

Thanks

[GregWeld]

Is this only if you sell the stock or will this be something anyone who owns stock in KPM will have to deal with every year?

Happy Birthday Greg.

Thanks

#1 -- Thanks!

#2 -- MLP's and Royalty Trusts are "DISTRIBUTIONS" rather than "dividends" - and as such have tax consequences. That doesn't mean you have a tax problem - it just means that they are shown on tax forms and you'll get tax forms sent to you for the amounts you receive.

#3 -- This doesn't mean much if they're held in IRA/ROTH accounts etc.

#4 -- Unless you have pretty large holdings of this stuff - you're unlikely to get enough distribution that it's going to have a taxable influence on your overall earnings. I wish that weren't so! I wished you all were getting 50K a year from these bad boys!

:woot:

[GregWeld]

What Mike said ---- I'm not pushing a political agenda..... I'm trying to teach you all to pay attention the things that matter to your financial futures. And to understand and relate how stuff influences the markets.

When you start to understand what makes markets move - either up or down - you can start to go "Uh.... yeah okay that's why the market did "X"" whatever X is.

Then it's not so scary!

It's kinda like understanding why you flooded the motor.... it's no big deal if you understand it.

[RECOVERY ROOM]

What Mike said ---- I'm not pushing a political agenda..... I'm trying to teach you all to pay attention the things that matter to your financial futures. And to understand and relate how stuff influences the markets.

When you start to understand what makes markets move - either up or down - you can start to go "Uh.... yeah okay that's why the market did "X"" whatever X is.

Then it's not so scary!

It's kinda like understanding why you flooded the motor.... it's no big deal if you understand it.

Always good advice..That makes it easier to maybe see changes also

[WSSix]

#1 -- Thanks!

#2 -- MLP's and Royalty Trusts are "DISTRIBUTIONS" rather than "dividends" - and as such have tax consequences. That doesn't mean you have a tax problem - it just means that they are shown on tax forms and you'll get tax forms sent to you for the amounts you receive.

#3 -- This doesn't mean much if they're held in IRA/ROTH accounts etc.

#4 -- Unless you have pretty large holdings of this stuff - you're unlikely to get enough distribution that it's going to have a taxable influence on your overall earnings. I wish that weren't so! I wished you all were getting 50K a year from these bad boys!

:woot:

Thanks Greg. As you've said, paying taxes means you've made money. I'm quite alright being taxed to an extent on an investment. I was mainly concerned with do I need to keep an eye out for these tax forms once a year.

[GregWeld]

Thanks Greg. As you've said, paying taxes means you've made money. I'm quite alright being taxed to an extent on an investment. I was mainly concerned with do I need to keep an eye out for these tax forms once a year.



A man after my own heart! I love to have to pay HUGE taxes! 'Cause that means I made a killing! :rofl: :cheers:

[GregWeld]

You might notice a "disjointed" quote for these today when comparing say Google Finance and Schwab... and or you look at your account and it's showing a big drop in these two - compared to the quote...

For example:

Schwab is showing a .30 drop in shares of JNK --- when the print is only a .07 drop.


Schwab is ADDING the dividend payout... so a .23 distribution gone "ex" today to the print price of down .07 - thus showing "down" .30

Not sure why they're doing it this way -- cause a trade price is a trade price so they shouldn't be arbitrarily showing something different. Oh well....

Both HYG and JNK went "ex" today. Oh how I love cash payments! :unibrow: :woot:

[GregWeld]

Okay --- so I'm always looking for something of "interest" to post... so I'll post up my moves today and WHY. This is just a "way of thinking" --- not a "what you should do" post. I'm still in the Investing 102 mindset when I post this stuff and I'm trying to get you guys to be "comfortable" THINKING about your investments -- not being robots - not being "me too's". Investing is about putting your thinking cap on and doing what's right for YOU.

I "park" money in several places -- especially with all the uncertainty etc with Europe and with our own economy - the coming election etc. So I carry pretty large positions in JNK - HYG - PFF - NLY.... These are YIELD PLAYS while sitting on cash... OKAY! That is completely different than an INVESTMENT in say Coke - or Con Ed - or Kinder Morgan.

I'm splitting on a nice road trip for a couple weeks.... While I'm GONE -- there are several MARKET MOVING events that have the ability to make large swings in the markets and particularly the interest rate markets.... So
I don't want to be caught - out on a nice road trip - having to sit on pins and needles wondering what the market is going to do. Thus -- I SOLD all my JNK - HYG - PFF. I'm holding NLY as that's a bit more of an investment than the others here.... Now --- here's the deal.... and this is the THINKING PART OF THIS POST. JNK and HYG just went "EX" --- so I have a gain in the shares AND I just picked up the monthly distribution. I can come back from my trip and I still have time to buy them back and pick up next months distribution!

I'm playing with some pretty large $$ here... so for ME... this way of "money management" is important. I want to maximize my cash flow... I like GAINS over losses.... and I can get both by just paying a little attention and looking and thinking BEFORE I just buy or sell.

If the market reacts favorably to the "news" - great! I can always buy back... and if it doesn't like what it hears -- I can buy back at lower prices and get a % wise better distribution! Either way -- it's a win.

Would I do this with long term investments? Heck no.... but doing this (raising cash) will allow me to buy more of those should the market take a powder while I'm gone -- or before I re-invest the cash.... REMEMBER we like it when things go "on sale"! If the market goes lower or spikes down - I'll back the truck up and buy more shares at lower prices and increase my dividend % --- what's not to like about that? If it goes higher -- since I'm just parking this cash -- I'll just buy at higher prices.... but I'll also be able to sleep well while I'm "away" playing. :cheers:

[GregWeld]

Today looks like a good day.... and yet - when I look at what I own and what's "working" and what's not (lazy employees) I noticed that an energy play I have is the laziest. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is down a $1.24 (4%) on a big up day....

That is the Investing 102 cue....

WHY? When everything is green is this one so red? Ya got to just poke around and see what's up.

Seems they offered up a "secondary". That's when a company issues (offers) MORE shares to the market. Usually these are priced at a discount to the current trading quote - so that big money buyers will soak them up and if the offering is below market -- the minute it gets back to "even" - they've got upside potential. They offered 14 million shares at a 3.6% discount to the market --- THUS --- the "price" for the common is now taken lower on the street since the company just valued (offered) to sell shares at a lower price. Makes sense I hope...

So.... is the company going south? No. Is the business bad? No Is there a fundamental change in the business? No Well then what changed? What changed is that they "went to the market to raise some more cash"... i.e., the "secondary offering" ---- they are sellers --- and they get the cash. Usually this is done when companies are making acquisitions... etc. Because if they just needed money to operate --- nobody would buy the stuff! It's kinda like needing a loan --- if you go to the bank because you desperately need money - they won't give it to you! But if you don't really need it - you can borrow all day long! :unibrow:

So with these facts in hand --- in other words --- I went out to find out why this is selling off 4% and found out --- and when I saw what I needed to know I doubled down.... WHY? Because a company I like that pays a pretty good dividend just went ON SALE.... and now all it needs to do is come back to where it was and I have a 4% gain on the new shares. OBVIOUSLY that's IF it comes back. But this isn't FACEBOOK (FB)... :lol:


Again -- this is not a recommendation to buy or sell this company. I'm just using it as an example to show the way I (BIG I) think and use the market. :cheers:

[Rybar]

Greg how do you find out this information so quickly? I find simple google searches do not help. Is there a website you recommend?

[96z28ss]

Greg how do you find out this information so quickly? I find simple google searches do not help. Is there a website you recommend?

yeah been wondering the same thing.

[GregWeld]

I go to Google Finance ---- pull up a 'quote' for the stock I'm interested in and read the news that is listed down the right hand side. The "news" is shown in alphabetical order as related to the same alphabet shown in the time line on the chart... so you can relate news with a "move" or point in time.


If you use (EEP) for instance -- you'll see a big "gap down" with the alphabet starting at "C" --- and a bunch more stacked up behind it so D - E - F etc and the related "news" is about the secondary offering.

Then I'll read the "10K" for that offering info which comes along with news like this to see what the company says it will use the money for... OR in this case -- I clicked on news article "B" and that news article detailed the 10K filing and I got my info.

BRILLIANT HUH?? :unibrow: :unibrow: :D

[GregWeld]

How sad..... but this thread aims to change that! Now that's hope and change you can understand! :lol:



http://marketday.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/07/13709600-investors-woefully-illiterate-about-finances-study-finds?lite

[RECOVERY ROOM]

Thanks for the insight again :thumbsup: :thumbsup: always useful

[Bucketlist2012]

Well I will throw in my two cents again.

I am hooked on that show, "American Greed", where people get scammed out of their money. It just amazes me what people will do with their life savings...Sad.

One thing I would say is to get a subscription to Kiplinger's Magazine just as some more reading material. Also maybe Smart Money, or Money magazine.
It couldn't hurt to get more info on investing, How much you need for retirement, Long term care , ect...

Also IF you need help....And I say IF, you would be looking for a FIDUCIARY, who would only be a FEE-ONLY Planner..Someone in the NAPFA or Garrett Organization.

You never write the checks to them, you ALWAYS have a Custodian like Schwab or Fidelity, ect...

A Fiduciary has the obligation to have YOUR best interests at Heart, and they do not sell you products on Commission..They are not Brokers.

I know most of you do your own Investing, but for those who may need help, try the magazines first, and then try a FEE ONLY FIDUCIARY..

Just a thought for the day...:cheers:

[GregWeld]

Good info mike!!


Look up - Wesley C Rhodes if you want to read about what happens when you give the money to the "broker" without using a real brokerage! He might be in prison but my friends lost ALL their money!

[Bucketlist2012]

Good info mike!!


Look up - Wesley C Rhodes if you want to read about what happens when you give the money to the "broker" without using a real brokerage! He might be in prison but my friends lost ALL their money!

Oh man, that really sucks... How people could sign over their money I will never understand..

I watched American Greed last night and this guy had hedge funds putting in 100 million into the scheme... It broke the ponzi scheme's back trying to pay 20% payments on 100 Million.

The moral is, IF you need help, you must do your research, and you ALWAYS have a custodian(Schwab,Fidelity,ect..), who hold the money in YOUR name..

Never sign your money over to someone because they will spend it..

A Fiduciary is the way to go...

I have family that use Chase....WTF.....1.4% fees plus all the other fees, and ALL the Investments are Chase...Chase stocks, Chase Bonds,ect...
I try to tell them, but I have finally given up...At least they won't lose it all, but they are getting screwed..

Part of Investing is studying, and IF you need help, no sweat, just get the right help. Some people without help will read all these pages and they still won't do much because they are not sure.. You must get skin in the game or Inflation will eat your savings.

But always have the money set up in a TRUST in You and your Wife's name.. One , it is your money, and two, the Trust saves your Heir's when you die...

[GregWeld]

If you're wondering what happened at Philip Morse (PM) today -- it rose 4% -- this is what happens when companies decide to increase their DIVIDEND BY 10% !! How many of you got a 10% raise this year??





The Board of Directors of Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE Euronext Paris: PM) today increased the company's regular quarterly dividend by 10.4%, to an annualized rate of $3.40 per share.

The new quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, up from $0.77 per share, is payable on October 11, 2012, to stockholders of record as of September 27, 2012. The ex-dividend date is September 25, 2012.

[WSSix]

Nice!

[GregWeld]

Looks like we might be in for a couple of months of the "death of a 1000 cuts" period.... where there is no "catalyst" for stocks to move UP.... People on the sidelines waiting for the election to firm up etc.


NOW is the period when I don't care what you argue about --- which stock -- blah blah blah --- but DIVIDENDS WIN! There's no growth in capital... but your capital grows because you're getting paid to hold! Here's 2 weeks of my Schwab account dividends received just this month only! I just finished a 4,000 mile road trip... and this pays for my gas. :rofl:


09/17/2012
as of
09/15/2012 ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC
type: QUALIFIED DIV
$3,630.00
09/12/2012 JNK SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
type: ORD DIV - CASH
$6,682.32
09/10/2012 HYG ISHARES TRUST IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORP
type: ORD DIV - CASH
$5,845.32
09/10/2012 PFF ISHARES S&P U S PFD FUNDS&P U S PFD STK INDEX FD
type: ORD DIV - CASH
$2,516.50

[96z28ss]

Pays for fuel for a few years, DB!

[GregWeld]

Pays for fuel for a few years, DB!




Hey now!


The month isn't even over yet!! I should get at least a couple more!


:rofl:

[GregWeld]

So it's been 10 months since this thread was started.... and where are we now?

We've talked about all kinds of stocks.... even though this is NOT a stock picking thread... but let's just see where some of the names tossed about here are.

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) UP 4.42%

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) DOWN 5.86%

Philip Morse (PM) UP 21.3%

Altria (MO) UP 14.9%

Chevron (CVX) UP 12.96%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) UP 5.73%

AT & T (T) UP 29.7%

Verizon (VZ) UP 17.28%

Home Depot (HD) UP 48.7%

Lowes (LOW) UP 20.21%

McDonalds (MCD) DOWN 5.31%

Con Edison (ED) UP .56%

High Yield (HYG) UP 8%

Junk Bonds (JNK) UP 7.54%

Gold (GLD) UP 8.10%


THIS IS STOCK PRICE ONLY -- NOT TOTAL RETURN -- TOTAL RETURN WOULD BE HIGHER.

[GregWeld]

Total S&P 500 UP 9.19%


So if you're stock is up MORE than 9% you're beating "the market".


Total S&P 500 WITH dividends reinvested - UP 10.504%


Using the period December 2011 to September 2012

[96z28ss]

Total S&P 500 UP 9.19%


So if you're stock is up MORE than 9% you're beating "the market".


Total S&P 500 WITH dividends reinvested - UP 10.504%


Using the period December 2011 to September 2012

I'm not doing that good, but from April 15 till today, I'm up 6.7% with dividends. I was doing a fraction of that with the 401k mutual funds.
Thanks for showing us how simple it is to make our money work for us.
I wish I had moved my money out of my 401k years ago to a self directed IRA.

[GregWeld]

I'm not doing that good, but from April 15 till today, I'm up 6.7% with dividends. I was doing a fraction of that with the 401k mutual funds.
Thanks for showing us how simple it is to make our money work for us.
I wish I had moved my money out of my 401k years ago to a self directed IRA.



Well.... as we've discussed here many times --- it's all about compounding. So 5% compounded over 20 years is just HUGE compared to 1% compounded...

The key is to take control and do just a smidgen of thinking and research -- and almost anyone could beat the performance of the average Mutual Fund. :cheers:

[RECOVERY ROOM]

So it's been 10 months since this thread was started.... and where are we now?

We've talked about all kinds of stocks.... even though this is NOT a stock picking thread... but let's just see where some of the names tossed about here are.

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) UP 4.42%

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) DOWN 5.86%

Philip Morse (PM) UP 21.3%

Altria (MO) UP 14.9%

Chevron (CVX) UP 12.96%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) UP 5.73%

AT & T (T) UP 29.7%

Verizon (VZ) UP 17.28%

Home Depot (HD) UP 48.7%

Lowes (LOW) UP 20.21%

McDonalds (MCD) DOWN 5.31%

Con Edison (ED) UP .56%

High Yield (HYG) UP 8%

Junk Bonds (JNK) UP 7.54%

Gold (GLD) UP 8.10%


THIS IS STOCK PRICE ONLY -- NOT TOTAL RETURN -- TOTAL RETURN WOULD BE HIGHER.

There looks to be more UP than down. Not bad at all

[GregWeld]

There looks to be more UP than down. Not bad at all



It's why I don't work for a living....:D :cheers: :woot:

[WSSix]

I hate to say it but I have no idea how to find a percentage on the Vanguard site for how my stocks are doing. All I do know is that overall, I'm green. I'm happy. :D

[GregWeld]

I hate to say it but I have no idea how to find a percentage on the Vanguard site for how my stocks are doing. All I do know is that overall, I'm green. I'm happy. :D



You could use Google Finance. If you pull up a chart of a particular stock --- you'll see in the upper LEFT HAND of the chart -- right under where you can select a time frame (1 day - 5 days - 1 month etc) there is a beginning date and ending date -- if you mouse over those - you can change the dates.... so you can put the date you bought the stock.


Or you can use this math calculation:


(Price Sold - Purchase Price)/(Purchase Price)


So using Chevron (CVX)

If you bought on Jan 1 2012 @ 106.40 and todays price is 116.97

116.97 minus 106.40 = 10.57 divided by 106.40 = 9.93%

[Bucketlist2012]

Hello all. I was doing some calculating and I am up about 15.7 % this year..

WOOT...:rofl: :thumbsup: That is some large coin..Not Greg Weld coin, but hey, I am working on it...My bucket is smaller...

Now I do think that we are in a very uncertain time with the election, the fiscal cliff, and Bernanke being an absolute fool, but I am in it to win it, and if things go south in early 2013, I may scale back like I did in 2008.

Just on certain assets, and then buy more of others. I still have friends who got out in 2009, at the bottom, and never got back in..Boy did they miss the party...

It has been a great run this year, but remember that things NEVER go in a straight line up....I call it shaking the tree like early in the year with 400 point swings...Only the strong hang on..The little man will test our balls...

But pay attention to the politics and the economics surrounding it..Just in case.

I wish i had as much passion for everything in life as I do for money..Making money just juices me up....Yes, it is an addiction.

One of the best one's I ever had. :cheers:

[Bucketlist2012]

It's why I don't work for a living....:D :cheers: :woot:

Hey now, we work...Just not as hard...:thumbsup: Retirement is a full time job...

And you darn sure play hard...:hail:

[bdahlg68]

Hello all. I was doing some calculating and I am up about 15.7 % this year..

WOOT...:rofl: :thumbsup: That is some large coin..Not Greg Weld coin, but hey, I am working on it...My bucket is smaller...

Now I do think that we are in a very uncertain time with the election, the fiscal cliff, and Bernanke being an absolute fool, but I am in it to win it, and if things go south in early 2013, I may scale back like I did in 2008.

It has been a great run this year, but remember that things NEVER go in a straight line up....I call it shaking the tree like early in the year with 400 point swings...Only the strong hang on..The little man will test our balls...

But pay attention to the politics and the economics surrounding it..Just in case.

I wish i had as much passion for everything in life as I do for money..Making money just juices me up....Yes, it is an addiction.

One of the best one's I ever had. :cheers:

According to Fidelity,

"Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/18/2012 is 17.6%"

Has definitely been a good year - and this does not include some dividends which are owed but not yet paid. Hoping for a smooth finish to 2012.

[GregWeld]

According to Fidelity,

"Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/18/2012 is 17.6%"

Has definitely been a good year - and this does not include some dividends which are owed but not yet paid. Hoping for a smooth finish to 2012.



You're killin' it!!


Do that for 2 years in 3 and it has an amazing multiplying affect!

[GregWeld]

Hey now, we work...Just not as hard...:thumbsup: Retirement is a full time job...

And you darn sure play hard...:hail:



Well.... one of my fondest sayings is "I have 6 Saturdays and a Sunday.... I know it's Sunday when the big paper comes".



Yeah -- I tend to get around a bit. This last road trip was down to Oakland to see our buddy Dave G and Susan -- then to Phoenix to see my daughter - then to St George Utah to have dinner with Blake and Anita (SpeedTech) - then to Logan Utah to see about my trailer (Poulsen's Trailer Sales) - went back to Rocky Mountain Raceway to do a test and tune with his Dragster.... then to Sun Valley for a buddies 60th B'day and retirement bash... a little golf and a little food... Somebody has to buy all that high priced gas!! and keep those hotels full!!

:cheers:


I took this quicky video using my iPhone...

Here's Dave Poulsen's 732 cubic inch - 2 stage nitrous - 277" wheel base - just running easy - this was a test and tune not a race session.... He run's 6:50's



UgGY3_8IjL8&feature=plcp

[WSSix]

Thanks Greg. I didn't even think about changing the dates on Google finance to figure it out. I'll sit down this weekend if I have time and do some quick math.

[Bucketlist2012]

Of Course I am watching American Greed again.

That show just amazes me. What people will do with their money. Basically give it away to fund a crook's lifestyle..No research at all. Just handing it over..:(

Dang Greg, You are on the move, well done. I know I need my I-Phone to tell me what day it is.. I love being free..:thumbsup:

Still working on getting healthy, but I am going to get healthy and get out and spend my earnings..I am not leaving it to the relatives... Although they wouldn't mind if I dropped dead, but I won't let it happen..

I have way too much to live for...And too much fun to still have..:woot:

[camcojb]

Of Course I am watching American Greed again.

That show just amazes me. What people will do with their money. Basically give it away to fund a crook's lifestyle..No research at all. Just handing it over..:(

Dang Greg, You are on the move, well done. I know I need my I-Phone to tell me what day it is.. I love being free..:thumbsup:

Still working on getting healthy, but I am going to get healthy and get out and spend my earnings..I am not leaving it to the relatives... Although they wouldn't mind if I dropped dead, but I won't let it happen..

I have way too much to live for...And too much fun to still have..:woot:

good for you Mike. :thumbsup:

[glassman]

Last couple of pages, good stuff guys. Keep it coming for us newb's...Mike

[Bucketlist2012]

good for you Mike. :thumbsup:

Thank you.

It has been a long two years and a rough road back.

But I am a cup is half full kinda guy, and no complaints.
It could so much worse and I am lucky. Luckier than most.

Heart and Brain issues are something you do not plan for.

Thank God for my Investments or I would have been Financially screwed. I had planned to work several more years but that is not going to happen.

I will probably have a shorter lifespan than most, so retirement was the best option. Now i just have to enjoy what is left.:cheers:

[GregWeld]

Howard Schultz was on CNBC this morning --- pitching Starbucks (SBUX) new coffee machine. When guys like this come on and do the talking head thing - I often just go and see how well (or not) the stock has done... this one was interesting.


If you'd bought Starbucks stock on the IPO in the summer of 1992 --- you'd now own their shares at .89 a share..... and you'd be collecting a 1.35 per year dividend..... so like Warren Buffett and Coke (KO)... where he gets his investment back each year in dividends.

Their stock has split 5 times -- each time 2 for 1 -- so for every one share you'd have bought - you'd now have 32.... AND for every share you'd have bought at the IPO price of $14 --- you'd now have 32 share with a cost of .89 that are now trading at $50. A mere 7395% gain.

Not bad for a 20 year hold. :cheers:

[GregWeld]

A little more "figuring" on Starbucks (SBUX)....


$2500 invested in the IPO -- would now be $285,000


You'd be getting $7700 in annual dividend


Drink up --- you're helping to pay someone that dividend! :lol:

[Bucketlist2012]

Greg the numbers Guy,

Those are some Impressive numbers. My point today is about giving back.

Thanks for your info and your thoughts on making money. You are giving back.

I talked with my Fiduciary Advisor last week about our game plan for the last of 2012 and the first of 2013, and we talked about my health and near death.

He asked me if after this experience was I giving back. Well I said that I need to save for medical and my wife. He said, oh no, I am not talking about your money, I am talking about your knowledge. I answered yes , that I am doing.

I have when asked, shared my ideas on getting and being debt free, Investing, Home loans, ....

He said that is great to try to share what you know while you can.

I just wanted to thank you for doing what you are doing. You certainly don't have to, and it is a great service to all the guys here and in your life.

You are way smarter than me on this , and i am just trying to do my part for those that ask. For those that aren't interested , or never ask.....They are missing out on some great knowledge.:cheers: :lateral:

[GregWeld]

Thank you!


Others eat sleep and breathe cam numbers.... or track times and tire sizes.... For myself -- I figure I can get those numbers WHEN I need them... I eat sleep and breathe the investing side of things.

I L O V E sharing this wee bit of knowledge HOPING that someone is reading it and that it WILL make a difference in their lives. :cheers:

[hifi875]

It will and is making a difference for me. I think about this stuff alot more now and have changed some of my investments(for the better) And I pay attention to whats going on in the stock market a ton more. I just need more money to invest, but i am getting there.

THANKS

[mdprovee]

Yes, thanks to Greg for starting this, and also to others for keeping it going.

Because of Greg I have stopped charging, pay cash for things, started saving a little, and my retirement money is making money, (a little).

Thanks for clearing my head, and keep the info coming.

[CRCRFT78]

I did a quick check just to get an idea of how things have been going for me. Here are the results:

Purchase date/stock/performance percentage + or -

February 4,2011 Apple 107.88%
February 9,2011 Disney 29.35%
October 12,2011 Caterpillar 14.73%
January 3,2012 Altria 13.36%
January 3,2012 Consolidated Edison -4.11%
January 3,2012 Pepsi 7.37%
January 30,2012 Kinder Morgan -3.49%
February 4,2012 Nike -6.55%
May 5,2012 Coke 1.26%

Based on this if I've done the math correctly, I have a positive return of 17.75%. I didn't factor in the dividends or the times I added to my positions so the numbers may be +/- a little. And I'm not sure I added correctly given the time frames of purchase but this is what I came up with. Feel free to correct me if I did this wrong.

[GregWeld]

Jose is our new INVESTMENT GOD!!

What a nice performance there buddy!


And to the others that have commented.... You make me happy! If this just touches a couple people we have success!

[96z28ss]

I wish Greg would of started this thread 2 years ago.
Then look where we might of been now.

Never too late to start.

[GregWeld]

I wish Greg would of started this thread 2 years ago.
Then look where we might of been now.

Never too late to start.



Hey! I didn't start this thread! WSSix did!


I'm glad it wasn't started too early -- then you guys would be catching up to me!!



:lateral: :cheers: :woot:

[Bucketlist2012]

Well we cannot go back, but I wish I had met you guys 5 years ago.

We could have helped some avoid the 2008 madness, and got you guys to buy in 2009..

My Wife thought I was crazy with the moves I made in 2006 to 2009, but she listens now.

She wanted to buy property in 2006 and 2007, and I stopped her..I sold it..

Then she did not want to Invest in 2009, and I talked her into it. I also got her family to buy in at that time. They are forever grateful and it makes me proud and happy that I could help.

Scary ? Hell yes... If I was wrong ? Oh man.

But we can all help each other from now on... I still have close friends who did not listen to me and are still "waiting "...

Waiting ? 4 years later ? For what ?

It was and still is an uncertain time, but you have to be in it to win it..Waiting just makes you not do anything..

I blew it BIG in the past, but I learned from that.

2013 will be crazy, so we will walk through it together. it will not be an easy ride...

[96z28ss]

Hey! I didn't start this thread! WSSix did!


I'm glad it wasn't started too early -- then you guys would be catching up to me!!



:lateral: :cheers: :woot:

Yeah true, but you did such a nice job of hi-jacking it!

[Bucketlist2012]

Hey! I didn't start this thread! WSSix did!


I'm glad it wasn't started too early -- then you guys would be catching up to me!!



:lateral: :cheers: :woot:

Success leaves clues... Finding people that have done what you are trying to do shortens the learning curve and helps avoid the mistakes.

Your posts help everyone to accelerate their learning , and you know how we like to accelerate.:cheers:

[Bucketlist2012]

Yeah true, but you did such a nice job of hi-jacking it!

I am also a King of High Jacking.

I am like a Cuban on an Airplane in the seventies...:lol:

[fleetus macmullitz]

Heard this today..."Too many people buy things on a 'lay-awake-plan'.

[Bucketlist2012]

Heard this today..."Too many people buy things on a 'lay-awake-plan'.

Haha. I have Insomnia due to anti seizure medication, but NEVER do I lay awake thinking about what I am Invested in.

If What I am Invested in keeps me up at night, it is the wrong investment.

You have to know why you own what you own, and what your strategy is. Short, Mid, and Long term.

Otherwise sell it...And buy something you can sleep with.

Also being debt free except the fixed low rate home loan and not in debt up to your eye balls, and also having the stormy day fund of several months available will let you sleep well.

Being Leveraged heavily is not a good thing. Owning what you have and living within your means is King.

Too many did not do that and 2008 wiped them out... That is insane...

OK, enough of my soap box...:lateral:

[96z28ss]

Looking at my IRA this morning, noticed that 2 of my stocks are doing pretty well.
I purchased COP (Conoco Philips) back in april. The company split off a division Philips 66. So they gave shareholders half as many shares in the new ticker PSX.
PSX is up 36.7%

My other one is T (AT&T) since april its up 26.1%

My total account is up 7.3% since april. I really happy with the return. I also can't believe I used to be one of the guys that never looked at the account and just forgot about it.

[Bucketlist2012]

Thought I would share.

I am up 18.2% plus dividends...:woot:

There should be a good run up through the rest of the year...

2013 ? Who knows...:cheers:

[GregWeld]

For those of you that maybe don't keep up on day to day news etc.... Annaly Capital Management (NLY) which we've discussed here many times -- CUT it's dividend to .50 from .55 this quarter.

They adjust their dividend payout based on the quarters profitability. Unlike most companies that just pay a straight dividend - NLY pays a percentage of earnings out. Obviously if they don't earn as much - they pay out less. It's STILL a 11.6% dividend at todays price.

I'm holding 35,000 shares of this name.... but like junk bonds and high yield bonds (JNK and HYG) I keep a VERY CLOSE EYE on these holdings. Their totally interest rate plays and they play the "spread" which when it goes flat or inverted - you get KILLED. I use these to park cash - and to raise my overall yield. PLEASE do not buy and hold these names in an account you pay no attention to! The yield is great - but the slope is steep and fast!:cheers:

[Bucketlist2012]

For those of you that maybe don't keep up on day to day news etc.... Annaly Capital Management (NLY) which we've discussed here many times -- CUT it's dividend to .50 from .55 this quarter.

They adjust their dividend payout based on the quarters profitability. Unlike most companies that just pay a straight dividend - NLY pays a percentage of earnings out. Obviously if they don't earn as much - they pay out less. It's STILL a 11.6% dividend at todays price.

I'm holding 35,000 shares of this name.... but like junk bonds and high yield bonds (JNK and HYG) I keep a VERY CLOSE EYE on these holdings. Their totally interest rate plays and they play the "spread" which when it goes flat or inverted - you get KILLED. I use these to park cash - and to raise my overall yield. PLEASE do not buy and hold these names in an account you pay no attention to! The yield is great - but the slope is steep and fast!:cheers:

I remember you saying that in a previous post...Good to re post it for those that may have bought some...You have given them a heads up and now if they own it, they know what to do..:lateral:

[Bucketlist2012]

I saw a graph yesterday that shows when an Incumbent wins, the market shoots straight up.

This is an interesting time in history. Not being political, but the economics of it are amazing.

In the short term, the end of the year should be a nice run up...The first of the year ? Probably a good run as well..

2013 as a whole ? Possibly ugly, or maybe not... I don't know.

But for those that have been in the market for a length of time now, know we have had a great run..I mean 17% ? That is crazy...

But pull your seatbelts tight one more time, and check your mirrors...At the very least, this is going to be a wild ride...:woot:

[GregWeld]

Politically -- the market has proven to perform BETTER long term under Democratic president. I personally think part of that was the numbers under Bill Clinton - and while he couldn't keep it in his pants... the world was okay under his presidency. But gawd almighty - if my wife looked like Hillary - I'd play around too I guess...


Nobody has a crystal ball -- and just when you think you do - you'll be proven wrong. This is why I say to pay attention - be aware - understand what you own and why... and remember that things can and do change. But that's when you go back to your charts - stretch 'em out.... and see that the presidents don't really matter. They're a mere blip.


EEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Bucketlist2012]

Greg,


Good point. I always tell people 537 politicians don't run MY economy...

But we do need to pay attention to what they do.

Like in one of my other posts, I don't lose sleep over what I own, or the Politics, but I do pay attention..

Whoever wins, I win, but short term, i may change some of my strategy, but the Bulk of it is long term Investing...:thumbsup:

[WSSix]

Alright, I have time finally so I'll post how my stuff is doing.

From March of this year my stocks are doing the following

OXY- -13.36%
WFM- +18.98%
KO- +9.79%
SO- +1.09%

KMP I've had since May and it's at 3.49%

My mutual fund that makes up the remainder of my ROTH account and what I took my money out of in order to buy the stocks, is +5.19%.

Using the quick equation Greg mentioned, puts me at mid 3% with my stocks overall. That means I'm getting my ass kicked apparently, lol.

If it weren't for the OXY, I'd be doing better. Oh well. I'll make a change later on.

[GregWeld]

Yeah -- OXY is killin' ya.... and that's what happens when you only have four or five stocks. One is a larger percentage of the overall performance.... if you had 10 it wouldn't have as much effect... 20 stocks and you'd hardly even notice it.

That's why we play "are you diversified"! LOL


Keep at it - you're doing fine!

[WSSix]

Thanks Greg. I did the calculations as if I didn't own OXY and the numbers were much better than my mutual fund. I'll be working on diversifying in the coming months. First, I need to ditch my savings for a house etc account though. It's at only 0.4% now, lol.

[nicks67ca]

Greg, I have enjoyed reading this thread. You make me think more and more about my retirement years in 2045 haha! I was purchasing stock from my previous employer through a ESPP where i was buying last years average price less 15%. It was always hovering around $50 or so then they acquired another company ~$4B and doubled overnight. The stock price then went to high 70's. I was really happy when i saw the values of my shares. What was also really cool was I could log into the system and see the dividend payments...man they really start to add up.

I was curious your thoughts on utilizing company match 401k. I always put in to get the company match maxed out in the last 2 companies i worked for. I figured it was "free money". What i didn't like is the cookie cutter plans you can invest in. They utilize plans based on desired retirement date which started aggressive and would get less aggressive as your retirement years approached. I have been averaging ~8% return but feel like I have less control then going out and picking 25 stocks. Another question is i am part of retirement plan through a retirement service (wellsfargo) do i actually own the stocks in the plan or do i own the plan and the service is bundling the stocks internally? I got thinking because i don't receive a dividend payment on the plan stocks. I never really paid attention till now but i always put in knowing deep down i need to have a retirement plan.

[Bucketlist2012]

Yeah -- OXY is killin' ya.... and that's what happens when you only have four or five stocks. One is a larger percentage of the overall performance.... if you had 10 it wouldn't have as much effect... 20 stocks and you'd hardly even notice it.

That's why we play "are you diversified"! LOL


Keep at it - you're doing fine!

Excellent Post, as usual. Yes I have 17, and 14 are Dividend payers...

Some Ying, some Yang, so the ride is smoother. But Reviewing it and knowing you need to adjust it is half the battle..

I know some people that haven't looked at what they own in years, and don't even know what they own..Let alone how it is doing.:willy: :willy:

[WSSix]

Greg, I have enjoyed reading this thread. You make me think more and more about my retirement years in 2045 haha! I was purchasing stock from my previous employer through a ESPP where i was buying last years average price less 15%. It was always hovering around $50 or so then they acquired another company ~$4B and doubled overnight. The stock price then went to high 70's. I was really happy when i saw the values of my shares. What was also really cool was I could log into the system and see the dividend payments...man they really start to add up.

I was curious your thoughts on utilizing company match 401k. I always put in to get the company match maxed out in the last 2 companies i worked for. I figured it was "free money". What i didn't like is the cookie cutter plans you can invest in. They utilize plans based on desired retirement date which started aggressive and would get less aggressive as your retirement years approached. I have been averaging ~8% return but feel like I have less control then going out and picking 25 stocks. Another question is i am part of retirement plan through a retirement service (wellsfargo) do i actually own the stocks in the plan or do i own the plan and the service is bundling the stocks internally? I got thinking because i don't receive a dividend payment on the plan stocks. I never really paid attention till now but i always put in knowing deep down i need to have a retirement plan.

Company match anything is an annual pay raise since it's based on percentage of your pay. It's free money, take it.

I'm in the same boat with being locked into what my 401k is invested in for the most part. Mine isn't a targeted retirement account. It's simply a selection of mutual funds and I pick what level of investment I want, be it safe, moderate, or aggressive. What I would recommend is exactly what I'm doing. Put in the minimum amount needed to get the maximum company match, the free money, and then take whatever amount more you want to invest in retirement and open another personal account that you control. You'll just have to be diligent about sending the money to that account on your own instead of having the money removed automatically.

I can't answer your Wells Fargo question though, sorry.

Welcome to the thread and good luck.

[nicks67ca]

Company match anything is an annual pay raise since it's based on percentage of your pay. It's free money, take it.

I'm in the same boat with being locked into what my 401k is invested in for the most part. Mine isn't a targeted retirement account. It's simply a selection of mutual funds and I pick what level of investment I want, be it safe, moderate, or aggressive. What I would recommend is exactly what I'm doing. Put in the minimum amount needed to get the maximum company match, the free money, and then take whatever amount more you want to invest in retirement and open another personal account that you control. You'll just have to be diligent about sending the money to that account on your own instead of having the money removed automatically.

I can't answer your Wells Fargo question though, sorry.

Welcome to the thread and good luck.


Thanks...now that I think about it i think it is a selection of mutual funds just like you stated. I have a Roth IRA that opened as well that I contribute to out side the company plan.

Another perspective is once you reach retirement you can take the mutual funds and invest in other stocks, cds, ect.

Speaking of CDs an interesting thing my grandparents use a CD as their income. It was paying around 7% 10 years ago. Now they are getting 3%. They planned for low rates as a worse case but it it proves important to diversify even during retirement years.

[GregWeld]

Yeah Nick --- Company match is "instant free money"... max out that plan if possible! It's free money that compounds over time.

The key then is --- what you put that in to. That's where most blow it... and all the free and tax deferred is eaten alive from lack of interest on the part of the person.

Get on Google or Yahoo Finance sights -- do some research on the funds you can invest in and try to at least give yourself a fighting chance to make it grow.

The difference between down 5% and up 5% over time is absolutely HUGE and your retirement happiness depends on YOU paying attention. :cheers:

Make waves if you have to.... to get your company to change or to increase what they offer. Get your other guys there to start looking -- and if the choices aren't good -- you can effect some changes perhaps. Nicely - done correctly etc.

[Bucketlist2012]

Keeping an eye on my 401K....20.57% return.

Nothing fancy because my choices are limited..Just a Mutual Fund..

My Schwab personal account is where I can pick what I really want..

:woot: :thumbsup:

[WSSix]

That reminded me to check on my company matched 401k. Yeah, I know I should have thought about it sooner but it's pretty much on auto pilot since I can only select from a few mutual funds. I'm doing it mainly for the match anyway. From the start of this year PRR is + 13.7% from the start of last year +12.3%.

I need to step up my game on my stock selection if I plan to beat my mutual funds. They are kicking my ass right now but I win either way :D

I can't even begin to figure out just how well my ESPP is doing because I get the stock at a discount. I'm going to have to dig around at it some more see if I can navigate the website or else I'm going to have to look back at my reports I get when a purchase is made and do the math myself. It's green and says I've made money though. Winning!

[bdahlg68]

For those maybe wanting some tools to better track a number of accounts (401k, Brokerage, ....), I would strongly recommend Wikinvest. It has mobile apps and a website. While the mobile app really only lets you see quotes and $ change on a total account, the website gives some interesting performance info. I really like it just thought I'd put it out there for others to take a look at! :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[WSSix]

Thanks Brian!

[GregWeld]

Well... coming in to the election -- the fiscal cliff -- europe -- we'll see how much you guys have learned -- and who goes shopping when they put things on sale.... and you can test yourselves EARLY in your investing cycle (while your piles of stocks are still relatively small - vs later in life when they're quite large!) to see if you really can stand gut churning pops and drops.

When things are good - investing is the easiest thing in the world. Everything works - you look brilliant - and only wish you'd have bought more....

When things go south - you hate to open your account - wish you'd bought something different - and question your very being.

I will tell you NOW... that what you should do -- is always have a shopping list ready - and have some entry point in your mind... save MORE... and strike when the lights go out.

Let's put this into car terms so you can get a better feel for the thought process --- because it WILL make a magnificent difference down the road.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++


You're saving for a new motor for your build... it's 10K and you're saving 1K per month. You've set all your plans on this motor and your plans for next summers installation... you've bought headers - pan - accessory drive - and planned everything out. Life is good. Sadly though -- the motor is going up in price... what was 10K when you started is now 11K. The economy takes a little dip but your job is okay and you're still saving and planning... and all of a sudden - your motor guy puts everything on sale and your motor is 9K til the end of the month.

Here's your chance to buy something you've wanted "on sale".... would you hesitate? Would you think twice? Would you be excited about the great deal you just got? Or would you suddenly think there must be something wrong with the builder.... that maybe next week it will be on sale for 8500... or that maybe that motor isn't really the right one and maybe you'd better study it a bit more?


What if you weren't ready with the whole 9K? But some other items that you need were on sale as well -- and you could save 10% before a price increase...

REMEMBER --- do your homework --- take the emotion out of your investments. Know what you want and why. SCALE IN.... like buying parts for the motor/build... it's okay to buy just the headers -- it's okay to buy $500 worth when you plan to buy 1K worth... IT'S OKAY TO BUY ON SALE... and there will be sales in the future... and there will be price increases in the future.... and you'll never be fully ready and you'll never buy when the best sale prices of the century are presented. It's okay. It's INVESTING. You buy when you can.

Many of you have just gotten into investing. This has been one of the most remarkable UP markets I can remember in a very very long time. It reminds me of '96 '97 '98 and '99 when every morning you woke up the stock you owned was up a buck or 2 bucks - they never went down.... EVERYONE was brilliant and making money by the wheelbarrow full.... Most of the people that I know that were day trading then -- I haven't seen or talked to in years... they ALL lost their azzez. They really had no plan - they really did not understand anything except that when they bought at $10 the next day they had $11... the first time it went to $8 and then to $7 and then to $6 they were wiped out. They should have only played with money they could truly afford to lose -- and when it went to $8 they should have bought a little - and a little at $7 - and a little at $6.... and when it came back to $9 they'd have made a real killing...

Obviously it's never just this simple --- and we're talking MIND SET --- and I'm just trying to get people to THINK about a strategy and to prepare yourself for thinking when you're losing the game. Do you take your team and walk off the field.... or do you rally - plan - roll with it -- have confidence in what you are doing and modify your plans a little to take advantage of a weakness you see in the other team?

:cheers:

[toy71camaro]

Great post Greg.

Which also points out, I need a better "plan". I need to take some time and sit down and plan out what the "on sale" prices are that I'm happy with jumping in at again, plan on what else I need to be better diversified.. and plan out what to do with my 401k. My work was looking into switching into a different account status where i could invest in individual stocks, but nothing is happened yet. do i wait to re-balance my 401k, or do i re-balance now, and wait for that to happen (if it does).

I need to put my thinking and planning caps back on. I need more time in the day. Ugh. lol

[WSSix]

This is why I plan to only buy steady stocks for the most part. I'm in this for the long run. I'm not interested in gambling or being wiped out because I was foolish with my hard earned money. I'd just like my money to make some money. The more the better obviously but some is more than none. :D

[pw2006]

Great post Greg! :hail:

You've helped me narrow my brokerage acct down from ~38 positions to 14. Last night I logged into my brokerage account, looked at each position, knew the reason why I owned them and knew which ones I would add to if the blue light starts flashing. Having a plan, being diversified,owning solid names and having cash ready for a sale, will help in the coming months. Hard to believe that this thread is only 9 months old. Thanks again! :thumbsup:

[Bucketlist2012]

Great post Greg! :hail:

You've helped me narrow my brokerage acct down from ~38 positions to 14. Last night I logged into my brokerage account, looked at each position, knew the reason why I owned them and knew which ones I would add to if the blue light starts flashing. Having a plan, being diversified,owning solid names and having cash ready for a sale, will help in the coming months. Hard to believe that this thread is only 9 months old. Thanks again! :thumbsup:

Excellent...38 Wow...That was a lot...Yes, I am at 17 and 14 are Dividend payers..

Yes and cash ready for the sale is always good...I keep about 6% cash ready to buy on the bigger dips...:cheers:

[GregWeld]

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) goes "ex" dividend today... thank you NLY!
Chalk up another .50 per share in the bank!:woot:

You don't get your money today -- it's just trading "ex dividend" today -- and I remind folks of this because if you check your account and see a big down (red) number -- stocks always trade off the amount of the dividend...

Ya don't get paid for days or weeks after a company goes "EX"....

[GregWeld]

On another note.... a buddy has just contracted to sell some property he's had for 40+ years... there was a bidding war for weeks going on by builders. It's a choice piece bordering 3 streets -- and will hold 19 houses... my point is more that there was a bidding war going on... and he (the seller) is a happy man.


Now.... we've been talking about this for weeks (he and I) as I've pushed him to finally move to cash out and use the money to improve his standard of living. I'd ask him -- dude!?!? Do you remember when you bought the property and he'd say, sure! I'd say - Why did you buy it? He'd say - it was a great investment. Then I'd ask him - when are you going to monetize (turn into cash) your investment? Do you have a plan? If you had X million in the bank - would it make a difference in your life? Or does owning / mowing / paying taxes on all that property make you happier?

He never formulated a PLAN for his INVESTMENT... there was no exit strategy. It was just "his property" but given his age and his retirement status - it was a burden. He'd never actually thought about turning it into real money. So a nudge here and there -- and I can tell you right now - this is one excited old guy! Now my problem has been to get him to stop figuring out all the crap he's gonna buy! OMG!

++++++++++++++++++++++++


So last night he calls. "How much could I earn on 1.5MM"? "Do I need a financial planner"? "What do they do for me"?


++++++++++++++++++++++++


Of course I go nuts on the "planners" - most cloaked in "planner" business cards but they're really just salesmen - and they sell crap products that only benefit themselves... and that are so complicated NOBODY understands what they've just bought ("bought" like a product - because they're not "investments").

After hanging up -- I sat down and started planning for him - figuring a list of 15 names -- 100K invested in each -- what they'd pay in dividends - what their 3 year growth rate was etc. And how much he'd get per month Gross and NET of 15% dividend taxes. When I was done - I put it into an Excel spreadsheet and emailed it to him.

Given that he is 75 -- gets SS and a small union pension... my guess is that the annual dividends are larger than he ever earned working. Think it will make a difference in his life?? Now we're working on the 32 Ford Tudor he wants to build (to keep busy)... :rofl: I'm so happy for him I can hardly stand it! :thumbsup:


Mind you -- this is just a quickie list to serve as an EXAMPLE of what he could anticipate. The actual investments should / can / will be modified once he fully understands what is going on.




http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/ad33/gregweld/Fun%20Fotos/SCAN0026.jpg

[Payton King]

What a great story! You have to love a great outcome.

Thanks again for taking the time and providing great insights to all of us on the board.

I look forward to meeting you in person at SEMA.

[GregWeld]

I look forward to meeting you in person at SEMA.




Prepare to be underwhelmed.... I'm not a very exciting guy.

Oh! And look DOWN to find me....


:thumbsup:

[68ZClone]

I've not posted on this thread, but have been reading with much interest. Thanks to you all for your candid conversation regarding sound investments! I've certainly learned a lot.

I was looking through my portfolio this morning and noticed MCD gave me a 10% raise last week by increasing the quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.77!

[GregWeld]

I've not posted on this thread, but have been reading with much interest. Thanks to you all for your candid conversation regarding sound investments! I've certainly learned a lot.

I was looking through my portfolio this morning and noticed MCD gave me a 10% raise last week by increasing the quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.77!



WELCOME!!

Hey -- Mickie D's is better to you than your boss!!!!


:cheers:

[96z28ss]

WELCOME!!

Hey -- Mickie D's is better to you than your boss!!!!


:cheers:

Oh yeah PM, MO, MCD, they all recently gave better raises than an employeer.

[Flash68]

Prepare to be underwhelmed.... I'm not a very exciting guy.



You got that right. :woot:

[bdahlg68]

I picked up another 30 shares of ED today (don't laugh Greg!, I'm working up to bigger slugs ). Looked on sale to me down 10%'ish in the last 2-3 months. Plus yield at 4% is hard to pass up with the current uncertainty level. I also added some MCD a week ago given the dividend bump. To balance these steadies I added to my speculative CYOU position as well yesterday. Going to trim back on NLY and MMT positions shortly to free up some funds for future sales. Both NLY and MMT have done well for me but it may be time to reduce those positions for the time being. I currently have 14 differnt stocks in my portfolio. I may trim that back for the next month or so depending on how things go. Always looking for bargains on the best!

[GregWeld]

Brian -- As long as you're thinking and paying attention.... that's the number 1 thing I'm pushing here... So good for you.

[bdahlg68]

I don't feel like I'm playing with chump change, just no where near your league. But, only 32 1/2 years old so you've given me a goal and a path - and for that I'm extremely appreciative.

[GregWeld]

I don't feel like I'm playing with chump change, just no where near your league. But, only 32 1/2 years old so you've given me a goal and a path - and for that I'm extremely appreciative.



Well - unlike the cars posted on Lat G -- this is really a very uncompetitive thread! :D I know how fortunate I am and have been.... thus part of the reason for trying to spread the word and help others have some of that same luck if at all possible!

I wasn't born with a silver spoon - I worked my butt off - as has my darling bride. We've just been a heck of a lot luckier than most - and many that I'm positive have worked longer and harder.

Keep at it - and when you're my age - you'll be coaching others to follow what you've done!

[GregWeld]

I woke this morning -- and the market is "down" -- let's not forget this is a PERCENTAGE game.... down a hundred points is a real ho hummer anymore... as is UP a hundred.


I immediately began to worry that you all would go back and read my "on sale - put your thinking caps on" post a couple posts ago... and think "oh hell - I'm not ready and I'm going to miss out... such and such is down 50 cents!"


NO! That is not the kind of preparation and thinking I was trying to portray.


I'm talking BIG on sale.... of real stuff.... on stocks you may already own or are on your list. We're not day trading here. We're investing.

Do your thinking in percentages.... AAPL off $5 is hardly a screaming buy...

We're talking long term investing -- and just how to think about what you're doing over that long term. SO lets say it takes you a year to save $2500 for your stock purchases... and during that year you've watched the market sinking... and here you are - ready to buy - and the market is poopie... and you're getting cold feet. This is when you have to say to yourself -- "X" company is still a good company - they're still paying "X" dividend -- there is not company specific horrible news... the market is down and so are they. Period. That is when you need to buy not turn away. Put your money in -- you just got a great opportunity. Go look at a long term chart and look at how many times things were down -- stair stepped -- a "swale" in the chart... but more importantly look at where it went AFTER that... had you been LUCKY ENOUGH to have bought then - where would you be now?

I'm NOT saying that the minute McDonalds drops $2 you should run out and hawk the house and back the truck up and fill it with MCD shares. And you certainly wouldn't buy a stock that is DOWN 10% in an up market -- unless you're doing a bunch of work to figure out WHY it's down when everything else is up! Or thinking that because Faceybook is down 50% it must be "on sale" therefore a great stock to buy "because it's going to come back". NO! Please -- that's not what I meant! :rofl:

[GregWeld]

We don't want to be discussing individual recommendations to buy or sell companies -- we want to keep this thread about investments in general... and use various real life companies for discussion purposes and examples...

SO with this "view" in mind....


I've updated my Apple (AAPL) iPhone to the new iOS6.... the one you may have heard about with the messed up Map app. I shrugged this map debacle off.... but it is something that I use ALL THE TIME....


Adrienne (daughter) was in Chandler yesterday trying to find where the new rig is -- it's at a well known address -- it's Freightliner of Chandler - it's right on the I-10 freeway... but is a weird set of streets to get there.... HER iPhone can not find the place so she's calling me.... Mine won't find it either and I had actually put the street address in!! OMG are you kidding me!

Okay -- so this isn't really a big deal right? Well --- it could be as far as the STOCK is concerned... because this is making all the news headlines and it's all you hear about from the talking heads etc on TV.... So why would it be important to the stock? Again just using this as a POSSIBLE EXAMPLE....

Apples stock has been on a tear -- it's really been meteoric.... and it's "priced for perfection"... which means any little hiccup in sales or gross revenue or by any other "metric" it has to OUTPERFORM the expectations.

Now -- they've only shipped a few million of these - into an installed base of a half a gazillion or whatever number it is... but and here's the big BUTT -- what if this gives consumers "pause" -- maybe just a pause on buying a $600 phone waiting for the company to come out with a fix - or perhaps they - after having had several versions of the iPhone - decide to actually take a look at the Android versions -- or whatever.... Maybe just 5% of people do this and Apple's sales numbers miss the "expectations". BAM! Ya get hammered. And you get hammered over night... and sometimes then, this causes a great run to finally "break" because people with HUGE profits decide to start selling to lock in a profit... they get "nervous"... their selling causes more selling...

Remember that to make an UP market -- you need MORE buyers than sellers... and when you have more sellers than buyers - things go DOWN not up.

You want to see this in real life -- pull up an "ALL" chart of Microsoft (MSFT).... the peak is December 1999 (the actual month they announced Steve bonehead Ballmer was going to be the new President) -- this chart looks like a MOUNTAIN -- a long slope up -- a nice (huge) peak -- and a long slope down.... More SELLERS than BUYERS.

What I'm really talking about here is what you hear all the time - IS THERE A "FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE" in the business? Is there a "consumer sentiment" change?

I'm not saying there is - or is going to be - or anything like that --- What I'm saying is ----- Lets watch and see 'cause it might be a great learning experience. For the market, I hope this doesn't happen... but I'm keeping my eyes and ears open, and if my friends start talking about maybe looking at a different phone "this time" --- or if they're saying they're "fine with the phone I have".... DUDE! I'm paying attention to that!

All of you are very intelligent -- and now what you need to LEARN is how to use what you know - put that into an understanding of how to be "ahead" of the market - or how to "spot a trend".... without even thinking about it - you may have done this in the past. Now start to think about how it could possibly affect your investments.

I'm not talking about being SPECULATORS here -- I talking about just good old fashioned basics.

When you go to Home Depot - are they busy? Or have you begun to see empty stores...

Are your friends all buying new cars and trucks? Or not....

Are you being asked to work overtime? Are they hiring or laying off...

Is the restaurant you go to all the time packed? Or are you going there less and nobody talks about the place anymore...

Put your eyes in and your thinking cap on and start to look at this "basic info"
and how you could be ahead of the market - or maybe not buy that sector in the market - or is there some investable play here?

[hifi875]

after 200 + pages, this is still the best thread on the net.

[toy71camaro]

Excellent point.. on the apple crap they just released. :lol:

Iphone 4 user here.. and just what you said, is happening to me. I love my iPhone. But i have to jailbreak it to really love it. I'm not that impressed with the iPhone 5 specs/differences. Its not cutting edge. iOS 6 has some pretty bad flaws (albiet fixable, eventually). I'm due for an upgrade, but I'm debating on checking out an Android (Galaxy S3, or something that comes out in the near future).. or weight my options if I really want to upgrade to an iPhone 5, just to get a hair larger screen.

I dont dare update my iOS however. iOS 6 isnt jailbroke yet. And a few of the VERY USEFUL apps on there I use, Apple wont approve, so they can only be installed via a Jailbroke phone. So, here i wait...

and here i sit.. debating this.. but, i missed the "big picture".. I missed how my thoughts may not be alone, and my thoughts affect my apple stock (all 0.5 shares of it. LOL).

[96z28ss]

I think Apple could go way down in the next few years with this new CEO.
Cook and Jobs have two totally different mentalities.

He released the phone knowing there were issues with the maps. He should of kept Google maps till the next iphone 5S. The metal backing is causing alot of issues, metal easily dents, Iphones scratches new out of the box.

I'm keeping my iphone 4S best phone I ever had. I just wish I hadn't dowloaded the new ios 6. I already used the maps and i'm not liking it. Although I do like the panaramic picture taking. It will be usefull when on vacations.

[Rybar]

Interesting take on Apple, I own some of thier stuff but read about the lawsuit they just won over Google and Samsung. My brother tells me Samsung manufactures parts I think the screen and processors for the Iphone, and the Iphone 5s apparently does not have google apps anymore like the maps and I think youtube. So I would be really weary about Apple stock right now as the Iphone is certainly not the be all end all of phones, it does have a huge following but I think the Samsung/Android/Google phones will cut into that market big time if they have not already done so. I'd be careful buying apple unless they come out with some new breakthrough products again.

I'm not a techie guy, so anyone else please elaborate on this.

[GregWeld]

Apple is certainly a good discussion.... but I think you guys missed my point.

It's not about 'apple' --- it's about LEARNING from SOMETHING LIKE THIS and how it pertains to the STOCK of a company.... substitute ANY company.


Because -- if I've learned anything in the last 30 years -- it's that NOBODY can tell me in advance - what's going to happen and how things are going to react. And since we're not trying to "game" the market a possible hiccup shouldn't matter.

The thing is - nobody knows - it's all just "blah blah blah".... and here's why I've learned not to bet my hunches.... because the minute you're absolutely, positively, certain, that APPLE is going to sell off.... and you take a million dollar short position ---- you'll get up in the morning and they'll have announced a "fix" for the issue and the stock rises 50 points.

I was really trying to get everyone to look at "the market" in a different way -- and to try to see and feel --- and pay attention to --- the inputs that already affect you -- to think about them and to try to use this 'input' to help you sort out your investments. So let's say you're ready to plunk down another $2500 in the market --- and you're trying to diversify --- and you have nothing in the industrial space.... so you're a car guy and you're thinking about FORD or GM... Stop and check your own senses for how you see "the market" -- everyone buying a new Ford pickup truck? Or is Toyota Tundra replacing all those Ford F150's....maybe that "view" is worth exploring and you do some homework and now start to compare Ford - GM - AND Toyota.

I bought Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) because every time I went there - the joint was absolutely jammed with people and a line out the door.... I went home -- and started checking them out... at the time it was trading at $54 a share...

I'd bought Apple (AAPL) for the very same reason -- every time I went by one of their stores there was a line of people buying stuff... at the time - the shares traded for $85 a share...

But I also want you to pay attention to what you see on an ongoing basis! That same "sense" for something that was just beginning.... can be used to help you SELL as well as buy. Sometimes knowing when to sell is every bit as important as knowing when to buy. So keep your eyes peeled for changes -- what your friends are saying -- what are YOU thinking about "X" product line or company.

What trends are all the kids CHANGING to -- from "Nintendo" to Xbox?? From McDonalds to Chipotle? From Nike to New Balance or Sperry Top siders?
And more importantly -- do you have investments where this "trend" might be your friend..... OR NOT....

Here's an old one.... I remember all the kids could talk about was MY SPACE... it took about a year --- and I never heard MY SPACE again -- it was all FACEYBOOK... There was a clear trend there! But sadly that stock trade didn't work out --- but the signs were very clear!

[GregWeld]

BTW --- The "talk" here about Apple and the maps app etc --- is very very interesting -- because there seems to be a little "back lash" feeling and as I had suspected... a lot of people are or might just rethink their next phone purchase. To me -- that could be HUGE.

This is what I mean when I say "pay attention to what your kids or your friends are talking about". It MIGHT be just the beginning of something -- good or bad... but talk like this when it's all one way ---- can be very very important.

I wished I was able to invest in LS engine production... separate from GM --- just based on websites like LAT G. It's pretty obvious if you had an investment in SBC Inc.... you would maybe have been well served putting some dough in LS Inc. :cheers:

[glassman]

Greg, i really like and agree with your thinking. Very much the "lynch" school of thought, investing based on what we can see, touch, smell.

While we can analyze all day long, we need to be "big picture" thinkers...

Regarding Apple, on one hand I think they are getting greedy with the "need" of a new connector which has me concerned about the leadership (more concerned with profit rather than consumer quality), and on the other hand the Itv coming out is highly anticipated which could send the stock soaring yet again...

I don't think greed is good, I think growth is great...

[GregWeld]

I agree....


Yes -- big picture thinking! The Peter Lynch school of investing works - has worked for many years - and for those that don't know who we're talking about = He ran (built!) the largest mutual fund - Magellan Fund. He ran that fund back when mutual fund ownership WORKED.


I'm not sure about Apple being "greedy"... I (we should all) love a company that commands loyalty - and margin - and strives to make the very best product money can buy... Rolls Royce - Ferrari - Rolex - Apple... nothing wrong with companies like this. The PROBLEM becomes when a company starts to think that they're successful and doesn't really need a customer... (Microsoft? RIM? IBM years ago?) or puts their interest and desires (Apples war with Google?) ahead of it's customer...Why go out of your way to piss people off? Just give the customer what he wants and laugh all the way to the bank. Don't change the Coke formula! (Remember that?):lol:

[WSSix]

Seems almost like people want constant change now-a-days though. I'd hate to be in charge of a major company simply because I believe in leaving well enough alone many times.

[glassman]

Interesting perspective Greg, I do agree with your outlook on quality.

I do feel bad for these tech companies to provide "instant gratifcation" for a demanding impatient public.I see it everyday with my company, a lot of my clients want my product " yesterday and for nothing$".

It's also getting harder for us tO invest in tech because of the speed at which things move....and I'm a speed freak lol...

[GregWeld]

Personally -- I have ZERO invested in tech -- despite the fact that it is tech that has created my personal net worth! Go figure that one!


A couple reasons for that... and they're decidedly real simple. Tech typically doesn't pay decent dividends... and more importantly... I'm not willing to do the WORK that it takes to keep up with the fast pace of innovation that drives this sector.

I'm not taking the time to figure out if I should invest in Apple because of the phone --- or Samsung because they make the glass (I don't know if they do or not!) for the phone... or some other part of it.

I love to read about what's going on - I like using the products - I'm a tech guy without being a techie. But I've said it before on here - I'm done trying to hit the next big deal. Been there done that. It worked well - but I'm luckier than most - and I live in an area where there is more than a little opportunity to be involved and we're well connected in that area etc. But I've lost a fortune doing that too...

I like investing in stuff that I am certain is not probably going to burn me with a sudden change.

Terbacky stocks have growth and pay a great dividend... and I'm sure people are so stupid that they're going to keep on smoking.

Energy needs pipes - refineries - and we're still using it for heat and transportation and industry. Don't see that changing by Friday morning!

Food and drink... everyone in the world needs it. Let's watch the average weight of the Chinese grow. :willy: :rofl:

You get my point....

I'm too stupid to figure out which company is going to invent the next super drug... but I'm pretty sure bandaids, toothpaste, and mouthwash are going to keep selling. :unibrow:

In my personal portfolio -- I balance all this with a bit of risk. I prefer high yield corporate bond funds (not individual bonds) AS LONG AS the economy seems to not be going south! So I'm watching the economy closely because if that turns south - I'm out of corporates!

I'm pretty sure people out there are still leveraged and that there's money to be made by borrowing low and lending high (the oldest game in the world other than hookers!).... so I like companies that can do that... but if interest rates "change" I'm OUT of that in a heartbeat -- and I need to be out of that BEFORE interest rates change -- So I'm keeping my ear to the ground for ANY sense that might happen. I can jump in and out of this type of investment in a nanosecond - so it's (so far) a good place to pick up income and park cash.

[GregWeld]

This is a good article about the upcoming elections -- and the possible outcome -- and more importantly - the authors opinion on what the outcome might do to your investments..


http://www.cnbc.com/id/49232956

[WSSix]

Sounds like they are predicting stocks to be on sale towards the end of the year and maybe beginning of next year. And that's about the only thing I can say without getting political.

[GregWeld]

You COKE (KO) owners will be happy with the dividend you'll see in your account today!


I love free money!!


:unibrow:

[GregWeld]

And that's about the only thing I can say without getting political.



Funny! And yes -- let's not mix politics in here - even though it is important!

Politically we have some giant events ahead of us.... the elections... and the fiscal cliff. IMHO both may provide BUYING opportunities for the long term investor. I'm just MENTALLY preparing myself for a roller coaster of highs and lows. There's really just no way to predict what is going to happen -- and I'm just not going to dump stocks that pay me to own them -- over the possible higher taxes I "might" have to pay on that income. There's also little alternative investment that I can make to earn the same return (total return). So considering I'm just Joe average man --- I think when people really look at what they can do with their money -- the tax issue will not really be such a big deal.

The bigger issue - longer term - is whether all of this gangs up on us and stalls the economy. And IMHO that would be a catastrophe as the FED and the rest of the world is in no position to provide more bail outs etc. We're out of bullets. That's why I think cooler heads will prevail and we'll just keep pluggin' along. OR I should say -- that's my hope -- and that's how I'm going to position my investments... until something happens to change my mind. :cheers:

[WSSix]

Well, I'm glad I'm in this for the long run. I'll be ready to max my Roth out in the beginning of the next year so I can definitely buy some more stocks then. I also believe I have my new savings account squared away so I can start moving some money from there to buy stocks in just a normal brokerage account I also have.

The bigger issue - longer term - is whether all of this gangs up on us and stalls the economy. And IMHO that would be a catastrophe as the FED and the rest of the world is in no position to provide more bail outs etc. We're out of bullets. That's why I think cooler heads will prevail and we'll just keep pluggin' along. OR I should say -- that's my hope -- and that's how I'm going to position my investments... until something happens to change my mind.

Well said and I'm right there with you hoping for the best.


I've made more money in dividend payments on five stocks since April than I have since the start of the year with just my savings account. The savings account has about 1/3 more money in it as well. I'm happy. :D

[srh3trinity]

When I get free time at work, I read through this thread a few pages at a time. There is some great free advice and I need to put some action behind it. I have been a saver since my teenage years and I was very fortunate to have had grandparents and parents that started me off with a little nest egg. Now that I have finished with college/med school/residency, I am looking forward to being a little more proactive with my strategies.

[GregWeld]

When I get free time at work, I read through this thread a few pages at a time. There is some great free advice and I need to put some action behind it. I have been a saver since my teenage years and I was very fortunate to have had grandparents and parents that started me off with a little nest egg. Now that I have finished with college/med school/residency, I am looking forward to being a little more proactive with my strategies.



Good to hear Stephen! And lucky you!


I think that's the main message you'll pick up from this thread --- which is, it isn't hard - you don't have to have a degree in economics.... you just need to learn a little and pay a little attention and you'll do just fine!

I'm living proof that a dummy can do it!

[Stuart Adams]

You COKE (KO) owners will be happy with the dividend you'll see in your account today!


I love free money!!


:unibrow:

Sweet. :cheers:

[GregWeld]

Sweet. :cheers:



Yeah buddy!


Here's what I love about a stock like this.... I don't care what the political situation is - or isn't - I'm not worried about any fallout from a name like this.

I have a $24K "unrealized" gain --- and it's paid me 11K so far this year in dividends. So you sleep well at night -- your money is growing without you having to do anything and they're sending you cash! WTH is wrong with that?!?!:woot:

[96z28ss]

Just got another raise. Phillips 66 (PSX) has increased its stock dividend 25%

[GregWeld]

Just got another raise. Phillips 66 (PSX) has increased its stock dividend 25%



Pretty nice since that resulted from the spinoff from ConocoPhilips (COP) and you're still getting a nice dividend from COP on top of the "new" dividend from Phillips 66 (PSX)...


Don't ya just love the stock market??!? Where else does your money grow like this??:thumbsup: :D

[booah]

I'm glad I posted my question about the COP PSX split, went thru the hassle of getting the international acct, isnt easy in australia, and kept the PSX stock......good move for me.
Thanks for the lessons

[GregWeld]

I'm glad I posted my question about the COP PSX split, went thru the hassle of getting the international acct, isnt easy in australia, and kept the PSX stock......good move for me.
Thanks for the lessons

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :cheers:

[JKnight]

I'm a young finance guy by trade and I can say that this thread has gotten me to use the critical thinking I generally apply at work to my own finances. My old 401k was languishing in some crazy aggressive foreign funds and I've decided to take control of the "employees" I have and put them to work in an IRA that is performing nicely. Thanks for the perspective adjustment guys!!

[GregWeld]

:rofl: :rofl:


Jeff -- Don't you just love thinking about a buck as an "employee"? I'm telling you the honest to gawd truth -- when I named 'em that.... it brought a whole new perspective to my investing. It was like "man -- put your back into it!"... I was crackin' the whip! Some of you slackers are going back to school! :rofl:



Here's another thing I've learned -- and thought about A LOT.....


If all those old "brokers" that want to tell me how it's done - are so f'n good at investing.... why are they still workin'? :woot:

[67pro-street]

Hello All, Just wanted to check in and say that i am still reading the posts. I just dont have a lot to update on since i just opened my schwab account 3-4 months ago and im not in the day trading business. I have enjoyed some dividend payments though and my Kinder Morgan account is looking pretty slick!! Anyways, dont have much to say other than im glad this thread is still alive and that there are always new people finding this "gem" and taking the time to read though it all! Party on!!:lateral:

[GregWeld]

^^^^^^ Pro Street..... Good for you!! Thanks for joining in!


++++++++++++++++++++++++




Guys -- Another free money post.... HAHAHAHAHA

AT&T (T) is trading "ex" dividend today.





++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Another "non" political statement -- that has everything to do with politics -- but only as related to the "market".



You've heard me say a zillion times that you can't "game" the market - and that when you're absolutely positively certain that "X" is going to go one way - something will happen and "X" will do exactly the opposite of what everyone "knew" it was going to do.


Obama was hands down winning..... the market has been waiting..... and people have been discussing what their strategy would be going forward and blah blah blah....so if you'd sold in order to get ready for the tax changes that have been put out there.... Then all of a sudden BAM -- Romney comes on strong and the market is off to the races... and you'd be left scrambling.


This is why I say ---- stay the course. Don't try to game the market because the market will beat you like a bad dog. Be aware - be thinking - be prepared - but don't be gamed out or in. Buy great stuff - collect your dividends - keep putting aside money for your next buy, and buy when you're ready. Sometimes you'll buy high - sometimes you'll buy low... but buy you must. 20 years will go by - and you'll look back and you'll have a nice pile of dough that's paying you a nice income. Fail to do this strategy... try to beat the market... try to get rich quick by plowing into the next big sure deal... and you'll join the ranks of all the people that are waiting on the government to take care of you.

[GregWeld]

Found this on the front page of NBC news (web)... clicked the link to see if there was something "news worthy"... and while it states the obvious for the most part -- there is a good strategy added that I've not seen before.


http://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2012/10/05/14172439-retirement-made-easy-here-is-the-magic-number



If you don't want to take the time to read it --- it's basically saying that you need 8 times your last years salary at retirement. And that to get there you need to have saved 1 time your salary at age 35 -- and by 45 you need to have saved 3 times your salary - and 5 times by 55. Which puts you within punting distance to hit the 8 times goal at 65.


Trust me... it's much more fun to play golf on Mondays knowing you're not going to work on Tuesday... and you're leaving for Hawaii on Wednesday. You have to plan (invest) for that NOW... not later.

[bdahlg68]

Great article, Greg. More of what I liked about it:

Fidelity lays out the steps savers need to reach their 8x level. It means contributing 6 percent a year to a workplace savings plan and raising that total 1 percentage point each year until you reach 12 percent. The assumption is that employers will add 3 percent in matching funds.

In its calculation, Fidelity factors in a 1.5 percent annual salary increase and average portfolio growth of 5.5 percent a year.

“The two factors that have the greatest impact on retirement savings over time are starting early and saving consistently,” said MacDonald. He added: “Having age-based targets provide benchmarks to help retirement savers stay on track toward their ultimate goal.”

In total, it seems like reasonable assumptions and actually made me breath a little easy based on where I currently am!

[67pro-street]

This is why I say ---- stay the course. Don't try to game the market because the market will beat you like a bad dog. Be aware - be thinking - be prepared - but don't be gamed out or in. Buy great stuff - collect your dividends - keep putting aside money for your next buy, and buy when you're ready. Sometimes you'll buy high - sometimes you'll buy low... but buy you must. 20 years will go by - and you'll look back and you'll have a nice pile of dough that's paying you a nice income. Fail to do this strategy... try to beat the market... try to get rich quick by plowing into the next big sure deal... and you'll join the ranks of all the people that are waiting on the government to take care of you.

Well said Greg! I know people have said this in previous posts, but you should really consider writing some sort of investing book, "Investing for Motorheads" or something. Seriously, before finding this thread i would have never actually opened up a brokerage account and started investing. Sure, i would have thought about it, but never actually done it because i was too scared of what i didnt know!! You have knack for explaining things in simple terms that are easy to grasp understand. THANKS to you and everyone else who helped make this thread what it is!!

[GregWeld]

Well said Greg! I know people have said this in previous posts, but you should really consider writing some sort of investing book, "Investing for Motorheads" or something. Seriously, before finding this thread i would have never actually opened up a brokerage account and started investing. Sure, i would have thought about it, but never actually done it because i was too scared of what i didnt know!! You have knack for explaining things in simple terms that are easy to grasp understand. THANKS to you and everyone else who helped make this thread what it is!!



Thanks!


I can explain simple -- because I AM simple!


It's taken me years to get a full (okay maybe half) an understanding for how this stuff works... and therefore it makes it pretty easy to "condense" -- especially if we keep it to "investing 102" style. Because - it really is "just that easy".

Brokers - and people like that... they want you to be fully dependent on them! They make it SOUND complicated so that you think they add value... thus pay them.

My true honest to god opinion of that is - what a load of crap!


If you can brush your teeth - you can pick good companies to invest in. :lol:

[WSSix]

I'm right there with you, Brian. We're at similar points in our lives. At times I get concerned, especially since I still don't own a home. Other times though, I have to remind myself it's going to take time, and while I'm not there yet, I'm doing alright.

[GregWeld]

While this is NOT a stock pickers thread... I still like to use single names (stocks) for educational purposes.

Watch APPLE (AAPL) shares...

This is another stock that falls in that "priced for perfection" category (IMHO)... and here we have the iPhone 5 release and now there is a strike at a plant that makes them.... so will that affect their earnings and sales numbers? Long or short term? Blah blah blah.

The strike isn't a big deal - stuff like this happens all the time... we're certainly not unfamiliar with strikes or other hiccups that affect a company or industry... but WHEN YOUR STOCK IS PRICED FOR PERFECTION --- then we have another matter entirely. And we have an educational event to watch.

I'm personally happy to NOT be invested in Apple... and I have made a bunch of dough off this stock. BUT as it reached a price point where a 1000 shares cost $650K to play - that became a point for me to just "move on". It became a percentage game to me... again -- explaining my thinking so that you all can gain some different ways to think about stuff on your own -- a 10% move UP from $650 a share is $65 -- so you have to ask yourself at that point - are you really investing - or are you just gambling and hoping like hell that someone else is willing to buy your shares at the higher price. Here's my personal take.... I'm joe average guy in thinking power.... and I'M having double and triple thoughts about buying it at $650 (in fact I wouldn't / didn't). If I'm having that thought - don't you think others are too? And if you'd bought at $450 or $550... and now have a HUGE gain.... are you thinking about buying more -- or are you having thoughts of SELLING and locking in an outsized gain. If it moved up another $65 to $700+ would you think about selling?

That's what I want you to watch and learn from. This is a "market" -- I don't give too hoots about "metrics" and P/E ratios - and whether or not the talking heads come on TV to tell you all manor of financial facts. In the END -- it's people making a personal decision about their money. PERIOD. The thinking is about when is enough profit in a stock, enough? Not so much about how much you "might" leave on the table if you sold today rather than next month. You start to worry about LOSING that profit. The minute the shares go backwards --- more people start thinking (and seeing!) the "loss" even though that "loss" is only a small percentage of their outsized gain. We're all GREEDY!

So --- just like cars (or houses!) -- when everyone is paying way too much for ordinary cars on Barrett Jackson --- things are good..... BUT when the prices start to fall --- and they fell FAST.... and then people start thinking -- "well... my car was worth $200 grand -- and now I'm seeing bids of ONLY $125 grand -- I better sell while I can still get that much money!". Doesn't matter that they didn't sell at $200 --- it matters what they might miss if they don't sell now. FEAR sets in! Fear and Greed make markets. Regardless of what anyone says. Learn from it. Learn when to be greedy and sell.... and learn when fear drives your decisions... I love to buy when everyone else is trembling (thus selling) and you need to learn to SELL when they're all greedy and buying. You also need to watch and control you're own fear and greed... That's why old adages like "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered"... and "buy low and sell high"...

I'm not saying that APPLE will go lower - or higher - or won't be the perfect DIP buying scenario.... What I'm saying is that if you're not invested in it - use it's swings to learn from it. Ask yourself how or what you'd be doing "IF". Then that's a reference for your actions when you're ready to take the plunge in some other name. Are you buying in greed mode or are you selling out of fear - are you investing or are you gambling? Learn to check yourself it will make a difference in your investing. :cheers:

[GregWeld]

Okay -- this is difficult -- but I want people that are following this thread to be really on their toes... and that means really being ready. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY can tell you where the stock market is going - either up or down... and if you go back and read this thread - you'll see time and time again warnings about what happens when things go south and how you might react to that.

If you're a TRUE investor.... and you own the kinds of stocks we've discussed here (not just the actual names - but the KINDS)... Then what you're set up for is the dividend stream - and if you're re-investing that dividend then you actually do better in the long term if stocks go down. Why? Because your dividend buys more shares - and the actual calculated percentage the dividend pays, goes UP..

If you're investments are in 401's / IRA's / ROTH etc... then you're invested for the long haul. Not only is this the time TO retirement - but for as long as you live AFTER retirement. Your money doesn't just suddenly stop earning on the day you retired. You just became Chairman of the Board and you have your "employees" still out there working hard for you every day! Stay the course.

If you're saving/investing/gambling money that you might need SHORT TERM.... Then I'd say you might become more defensive. More defensive means to take some profits if you have some... and to sell anything that you might have bought "just because" and you think maybe it's going to give you a short term gain.

Having CASH is always being KING.... Having CASH allows you to breathe easy and allows you to buy at lower prices etc. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit. Remember that this is for investments OUTSIDE of the above ROTH/IRA/401. We're talking taxable accounts.

I've raised my cash hoard substantially. What I've personally done is to take the cash out of the places I "park" it... which are high yielding bond ETF etc.
With the elections undecided - the world seems to be saying there is slowing growth or no growth - China's slowing... I want to be READY to be able to buy real good companies at lower prices. I want to be ready to add to my Coke and my Con Ed and my McDonalds etc... If I'm WRONG... then the worst thing I've done is have cash to buy at higher prices - which will give me lower yields going forward.

Those of you that have gotten in the market "recently" -- probably don't have gains - or have very slim gains... But if you invested in DIVIDEND paying stocks then that is where your gains are going to come from!

What I'm talking about here (as far as my selling recently is concerned) are those names where I've just used cash to generate outsized dividends in speculative stuff. That's why I've said at the top of this post that this is going to be difficult. There's a distinct difference of where you go to raise cash. I've posted many times the names I use for this purpose... and all I'm saying now - is that I'm going to UNPARK it in those and actually hold the cash because I think there COULD BE/MAY BE a buying opportunity going forward.

Does this make sense?

What I'm SENSING is that people that have huge gains -- which is anyone that's been in the market in the last TWO years.... they may be taking some of those gains off that table. I'm seeing/sensing this in Apple and Google and some of the other big gainers... and frankly - it's what I'd be doing if I owned those. We know the tax rate for THIS YEARS long term gains - we don't know what that's going to look like going forward... at 15% LTCG - This is the year to be taking them. Especially if you're a "1%" earner... and the market is where those earners put their money.

I personally think the USA is on the upswing! Everyone I talk to says business is good! If you're a realtor it's GREAT! Car sales are good... housing sales are good...

So I hope what I'm trying to say is not misunderstood -- I'm just saying that I think I might get a buying opportunity... but I have not sold my steady - great name - dividend payers.... I've just sold the cash parking positions.

Of course I fully expect those to take off to the moon now that I've done that. The man knows - and WILL work to make me look like an idiot. :rofl:

[nicks67ca]

Greg what address should I use to just mail you my paychecks? :) Seriously though your insight has made me add to my strategy. I think at my age I can park "extra cash" in the dividend paying stocks and re-invest the dividends. I think the important thing that i am realizing is that no matter what the dollar amount invested now I have the next 30 years to make it work for me.

Thanks again for your insight and experience in this tread!

Nick

[GregWeld]

Greg what address should I use to just mail you my paychecks? :) Seriously though your insight has made me add to my strategy. I think at my age I can park "extra cash" in the dividend paying stocks and re-invest the dividends. I think the important thing that i am realizing is that no matter what the dollar amount invested now I have the next 30 years to make it work for me.

Thanks again for your insight and experience in this tread!

Nick



HAHAHAHA


Nick --- That is EXACTLY the kind of thinking I'm trying to promote. Forget todays price - or next weeks - or next years.... Just get in - put more in when possible - and you'll be richly rewarded in the future.


:cheers:

[WSSix]

I understand what you're saying Greg and I agree. I intend to buy more stocks soon in a brokerage account that's outside of normal retirement accounts. Right now, I'm just waiting for the outcome of the election and to see what Congress intends to do about the fiscal cliff or whatever made up term they are calling it today. I figure I might "lose" 3-4 months of investing time but I'd rather be patient and see some resolution to these concerns. Besides, I'm not really "losing" anything. My future stock purchase money is sitting in a savings account making 1%. I've never seen a negative interest rate on a savings account. So I can't lose. I just won't earn a lot.

I'm glad you're at ease and like what you're seeing in the economy for the most part. You understand this more than me and are more connected and informed as well. So that helps me feel better because frankly, I'm not so confident in what's going on right now. I'm confident it will get better eventually, but how long until eventually becomes now though?

[GregWeld]

I understand what you're saying Greg and I agree. I intend to buy more stocks soon in a brokerage account that's outside of normal retirement accounts. Right now, I'm just waiting for the outcome of the election and to see what Congress intends to do about the fiscal cliff or whatever made up term they are calling it today. I figure I might "lose" 3-4 months of investing time but I'd rather be patient and see some resolution to these concerns. Besides, I'm not really "losing" anything. My future stock purchase money is sitting in a savings account making 1%. I've never seen a negative interest rate on a savings account. So I can't lose. I just won't earn a lot.

I'm glad you're at ease and like what you're seeing in the economy for the most part. You understand this more than me and are more connected and informed as well. So that helps me feel better because frankly, I'm not so confident in what's going on right now. I'm confident it will get better eventually, but how long until eventually becomes now though?




Excellent!

Markets don't like "uncertainty" -- they will SELL OFF when there is uncertainty - because people don't like standing (possibly) in front of a train.
Nobody knows if there is a train - but they don't want to stand on the tracks just in case.

For the average investor - it's futile to try to "time" events... in fact - it's IMPOSSIBLE. Thus the "just stay the course".

BUT if people have suddenly decided they should invest some "quick money" recently... then my advice would be to stand down.... let the political and economic uncertainty become clearer... then pounce if it turns out to be a good entry point.

The market is always a "percentage game" --- 10% is a big move...

10% on a grand isn't much money... we spend that going out to eat... but 10% on the kind of cash that I'm playing with - that buys a house! So I'm "on it" all the time. :cheers:

[mdprovee]

Greg,

I wanted to let you know the help you and this thread have given me.

I made some changes yesterday on my account, and I am up 11.5% from a year ago. As an example...my AT&T went from $4900 at the start to $6000 yesterday. I know that was a great year, and I dont expect that always, but I will take a good year.

I owe you a steak dinner.

[GregWeld]

Greg,

I wanted to let you know the help you and this thread have given me.

I made some changes yesterday on my account, and I am up 11.5% from a year ago. As an example...my AT&T went from $4900 at the start to $6000 yesterday. I know that was a great year, and I dont expect that always, but I will take a good year.

I owe you a steak dinner.



God bless America!


You don't owe me ANYTHING! Just knowing that things are working - or even NOT working - is good enough!

Yes AT&T has had a nice run - but that run is linked to all the new phones and iPad type devices that are coming on! I think AT&T would have been left for dead if they hadn't seen the move in the cellular market. And the market and the demands for speed and data are going to propel AT&T and Verizon to ever new highs.

They pay a great dividend - and have great cash flow... and are well run. What more can a guy want?

[GregWeld]

I used some cash to buy 2000 shares of Apple today.... It has dipped down... we're going into the 4th quarter - which means XMAS shopping will be in full swing - you have the new iPhone - perhaps a mini iPad - and I was just at the mall and the store (which they just quadrupled in size) was MOBBED.... by comparison - there was nobody in the Microsoft store except the blue shirted employees. This is the Peter Lynch way of investing... :lol:

I received 3 new iPhone 5's today -- they had been on order since the release date... I like the new look and feel.

The maps thing is still a hassle -- and has made me mad a couple of times... but I just downloaded the Google iPhone map app -- and that seems to work just fine.

If I can get 5% gain between now and Xmas.... I'd be happy!

Once again -- This thread is not about individual names -- and I'm not saying ANYONE should go buy a stock or sell a stock etc --- I'm just kind of blogging about what I'm doing and my thinking. I had posted previously about Apple (AAPL) and that maybe it's "over" as far as a big run from where it was -- but you have to keep an open mind -- and I see the stores jammed and people waiting to buy (pent up demand).... ya gotta rethink sometimes - thus my post today. We'll see how that works out.

PS: It is the only stock in ANY of my accounts that pays such a crappy little dividend -- so it HAS to have growth in the share price - or it gets the boot!

[GregWeld]

BTW --- The LTE is SMOKING fast compared to the 4G of the iPhone 4s....


It's like WOW! Fast.....


That's the only reason I upgraded - because I do lots of road trips and want the phone to be basically a laptop replacement and the speed DOES make a huge difference!

[96z28ss]

God bless America!


You don't owe me ANYTHING! Just knowing that things are working - or even NOT working - is good enough!

Yes AT&T has had a nice run - but that run is linked to all the new phones and iPad type devices that are coming on! I think AT&T would have been left for dead if they hadn't seen the move in the cellular market. And the market and the demands for speed and data are going to propel AT&T and Verizon to ever new highs.

They pay a great dividend - and have great cash flow... and are well run. What more can a guy want?


Greg, just remember that AT&T makes more profit when the sales of the iphone slows down. The stock has had a good ride recently due to the slow down of iphone4S sales. People were waiting for the iphone 5 to come out.
AT&T loses -$200 for evey iphone sale.

[GregWeld]

Sure they do - and they also sign you up for another 2 year contract! If they were losing money - you wouldn't be getting a 5+% dividend!

And remember that people are signing up for "data plans" for their iPads by the gazillions....

And remember that the "unlimited" data on your iPhone - ISN'T unlimited... if you read the fine print.

And remember - not everyone is going from an iPhone to another iPhone - there are MILLIONS of people that have yet to get a "smart phone" -- and smart phone plans are NOT the $9.95 el cheapo monthly --- the iPhone is like $50 bucks a month! So they're making money on that upgrade cycle.

It's all about the "up sale". Margins are better when you up sale!:thumbsup:

:cheers:

[GregWeld]

I know some readers are into Chevron (CVX)....

I was just thinking that when you have a dip in the shares of a company like this because of an "event" -- it usually turns out to be a good entry point. WE have to think longer term than one quarter or two quarters. Chevron has had the misfortune to have a fire at their refinery (California) and has stated that this will affect a couple quarters... well no kidding! It's like if you had a fire at your rental house! Yeah... you'd be stressed out and you'd lose income while it's being repaired... but that doesn't break the original premise upon which you bought the rental does it. It's a mere hiccup.

This stock has been trading in a range of 116 to 118 -- and all of a sudden today it's on sale for 112... That's like almost 5% off... WHOO HOO!


Again -- I'm not pitching one stock over any other --- I just happened to be poking around (as I always do) and noticed this "story" and thought well --- right here is the kind of an "on sale" event that I've talked about before.... A perfectly good stock that for whatever reason is now at a better price.

[GregWeld]

Don't ya just LOVE dividends?? Altria (MO) put some cash into your accounts this morning.

Now I can afford to buy a 100 gallons of fuel for the new "rig" when I pick it up this afternoon! :thumbsup: :unibrow:

[nicks67ca]

Greg do you have a preferred service you use when purchasing? Do you pay a broker or are you using Fidelity, Ameritrade, or similar?

Nick

[glassman]

Picking it up today? congrats...

What does Altria do? i've never heard of them (sometimes my head is in the sand....cause my wifey likes the beach)

[96z28ss]

Picking it up today? congrats...

What does Altria do? i've never heard of them (sometimes my head is in the sand....cause my wifey likes the beach)

I was just like you in April, I heard it mentioned here a few times. So I did some research. Its the parent company of Philip Morris tobacco company. However I did a bit more research and found that they own a slew of Wine Estates up and down the west coast, 17 in total.
With the amount of wine that is consumed at my house I had to buy into it, been keeping them in buisness for years and didn't know it. LOL
Its been a good stock.

[glassman]

That is funny! My house too. I will look into....

[GregWeld]

Greg do you have a preferred service you use when purchasing? Do you pay a broker or are you using Fidelity, Ameritrade, or similar?

Nick



That "depends" --- I use a brokerage for all my Muni Bonds.... I use Schwab for all discussions (buys and sales) for this thread... I have two other large brokerages that handles other pieces for me. But for purposes of this thread they're all done via Schwab. I like schwab for research and for just general purposes. It's easy to navigate their site -- I've used it for years and familiar with all the features etc. Otherwise there's no particular reason.

[GregWeld]

Picking it up today? congrats...

What does Altria do? i've never heard of them (sometimes my head is in the sand....cause my wifey likes the beach)

SIN STOCK -- Tobacco!

[GregWeld]

I used some cash to buy 2000 shares of Apple today....


Guess I should have waited. The little man said "Greg's in! Take 'er down!"

I hate that little guy!


:cheers:

[Sieg]

I like it better when you drive down stocks I can afford. :D

[nicks67ca]

I used some cash to buy 2000 shares of Apple today.... It has dipped down... we're going into the 4th quarter - which means XMAS shopping will be in full swing - you have the new iPhone - perhaps a mini iPad

From CNN money....
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/16/technology/mobile/ipad-mini-event/index.html?iid=HP_LN

They even set a day for the press event, with only 1 month before prime holiday shopping. It will be interesting to see how much cannibalization happens on the current ipad line up that starts at $399. I am guessing $199-$250 retail on the mini since that is where the market is on the smaller 7" screens. They need volume to replace any lost sales of the $399+ models at a 2:1 rate by taking market share, which they have 70% of it.

[GregWeld]

My Apple (AAPL) buy is looking a smidgen better after today's 15 point advance!

I'm busy just road trippin' in the new rig - and not checking stocks etc... or Lat- G much either.

I kinda like not hangin' on the computer all day like when I'm home or in the shed.

:cheers: :woot:

[Bucketlist2012]

Hope you all are doing well. I too have been away from my computer..

Hope to harass you guys again soon.

Mike

[bdahlg68]

Hope you all are doing well. I too have been away from my computer..

Hope to harass you guys again soon.

Mike

Up a ho-hum 1.3% today... Harass that! Today was one of thosre days... If you miss it, the year looks a lot different.

[GregWeld]

Up a ho-hum 1.3% today... Harass that! Today was one of thosre days... If you miss it, the year looks a lot different.



Spot on info! And very very true!

[GregWeld]

OUCH.....



:lol:

[GregWeld]

I love "headlines"..... :rolleyes:


Since I have been out running "the rig" around (thru 7 states) I have ignored the market and my accounts. Thus the beauty of dividends...

This morning I'm just poking around and I see Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is up nicely. So I click on the symbol to see what's up. I always scroll down the page to see the news... and the two top headlines are this:


"Kinder Morgan says 3Q net income rises 32 percent"


I wish my 3 quarter NET income went UP 32%.... WOW! That's pretty nice!


The next headline reads:


"Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Lp (KMP) misses Q3 EPS by 1c"


Really? Reading the story tells you that they "missed" the "estimate" by 1c (one penny per share).....


Here's my "take away" from this stuff.... Depending on which headline you read (which one your newspapers business section decided to run) may affect your thinking and your view of the world. One would be "holy cow -- they're UP 32%" -- the other would be "wow... they MISSED... that's got to be bad".

You have to poke around and when you see "news" - you need to get active and see if there's more to the story.

I'm not saying (because I haven't really dug into the two stories) which one of these is "more important"... I'm just saying that the headlines are so 180* different that if you only saw one of them it would make a difference in how you'd view "the quarter".

[BC69]

Here's my "take away" from this stuff.... Depending on which headline you read (which one your newspapers business section decided to run) may affect your thinking and your view of the world. One would be "holy cow -- they're UP 32%" -- the other would be "wow... they MISSED... that's got to be bad".

The takeaway is the fact that markets prices already price future expectations. The first article could have read, Net Income up 1000000%, but if the market expected 10000002% then it doesn't matter. They already priced in the assumption. So being up doesn't matter unless its up above expectations.

Google last week got beat down because they might have had a good quarter, but didn't meet expectations. The problem there is GOOG is too cool for school and doesn't provide guidance to the street, so the "expectations" set in the market are generally not very well baked and you end up with big swings like last week when actual numbers are reported.

[GregWeld]

The takeaway is the fact that markets prices already price future expectations. The first article could have read, Net Income up 1000000%, but if the market expected 10000002% then it doesn't matter. They already priced in the assumption. So being up doesn't matter unless its up above expectations.

Google last week got beat down because they might have had a good quarter, but didn't meet expectations. The problem there is GOOG is too cool for school and doesn't provide guidance to the street, so the "expectations" set in the market are generally not very well baked and you end up with big swings like last week when actual numbers are reported.



I think you missed my point... and it's an investing 102 point...

There were two DISTINCT headlines... one quiet positive - one more negative.

My points are not about the actual facts as stated -- but more a general - "here's some things to think about" and if you see ONE article - it might pay you to investigate further rather than just relying on a headline.


Your points are valid - just not really related to what I was trying to get across. "Expectations" are very real and set the bar and for a trader - they can win or lose based on these expected or "whisper" numbers. We could argue all day about that. Personally I think they're ridiculous because they're nothing but "best guesses" = there is a high number by one analyst and there is a lower number by another, and everything in between. Personally -- I'd prefer to hear/read etc what the company says about it's business going forward vs. someones best guess.

Remember too that when I'm writing... I'm trying to speak to a very broad base of understanding. Many here are brand new to investing in anything. I'm writing to help them understand and perhaps learn from events etc that are new to them. :cheers:

[GregWeld]

The takeaway is the fact that markets prices already price future expectations. The first article could have read, Net Income up 1000000%, but if the market expected 10000002% then it doesn't matter. They already priced in the assumption. So being up doesn't matter unless its up above expectations.

Google last week got beat down because they might have had a good quarter, but didn't meet expectations. The problem there is GOOG is too cool for school and doesn't provide guidance to the street, so the "expectations" set in the market are generally not very well baked and you end up with big swings like last week when actual numbers are reported.


BTW -- Google is another one of those "priced for perfection" stocks I've discussed. I don't care if it's Google -- or pick any other name... My point and writing would be about investing in these "kinds" of stocks where all the planets better be aligned PERFECTLY - because if not - they get killed. That may or may not be a buying opportunity. That depends on a persons view and risk tolerance etc. My Investing 102 point would always be about UNDERSTANDING these kinds of stocks before you invest in them and what and how the market will operate. And understanding the terms such as "priced for perfection" which is used quite often.

[WSSix]

From a long term point of view, wouldn't it better that a company grew by 32% even if they did indeed miss expectations by 1 penny? I realize the price of the stock is based on expected earnings but 32% growth year to year is good. I personally would rather know they had great growth. Am I wrong in thinking that's more important to me since I'm long term?

[bdahlg68]

From a long term point of view, wouldn't it better that a company grew by 32% even if they did indeed miss expectations by 1 penny? I realize the price of the stock is based on expected earnings but 32% growth year to year is good. I personally would rather know they had great growth. Am I wrong in thinking that's more important to me since I'm long term?

It can be real good and it can be real bad... the important thing to determine is why this 32% increase in top-line growth yielded no benefits to bottom line. If this is readily explainable and somewhat of a one-time deal, then it should be back to business as usual. If this is not, then further evaluation is needed....

[GregWeld]

From a long term point of view, wouldn't it better that a company grew by 32% even if they did indeed miss expectations by 1 penny? I realize the price of the stock is based on expected earnings but 32% growth year to year is good. I personally would rather know they had great growth. Am I wrong in thinking that's more important to me since I'm long term?


Growth always (usually :lol: ) trumps all else... unless they just have really inept management.

Growth has to be measured by different metrics.... Sales (top line) - Profit (bottom line) etc.

It is always a "it depends" metric. Thus you always have to look deeper at a P&L to find out - or at least try to understand - how a business is doing. Some companies that are "new" -- let's use Faceybook as an example -- might just be judged on top line growth - because their expenses are going to be steep as a "start up"... but eventually they will be expected to produce a profit! A more mature company should be able to control their expenses and therefore, gains in top line should also be seen in the bottom line.

This is one reason that just basing a decision to buy or not buy on one metric is kind of foolish. P/E's (Price to Earnings ratio) are one of those metrics that are often sighted as being "too high" or perhaps "low" making the stock seem like a "value". I just don't think any single metric should be a basis for any decision. It's more like a good engine... it needs to be the sum total of all the parts and they need to be working together.

[WSSix]

That makes sense. You need substance and not just fluff since we aren't gambling here. The history of the stock value and the company can be used to determine if indeed the company is having both top and bottom line growth, correct? Because as Brian mentioned, if it only had top line and no bottom line, something's amiss and I'd imagine the stock wouldn't do well throughout history. At least I would think that's correct.

I guess I'm just trying to tie the simple approach of looking at a stock's history to be a good indicator of its potential as a viable investment to a deeper understanding of what or why its price history is what it is.

[GregWeld]

That makes sense. You need substance and not just fluff since we aren't gambling here. The history of the stock value and the company can be used to determine if indeed the company is having both top and bottom line growth, correct? Because as Brian mentioned, if it only had top line and no bottom line, something's amiss and I'd imagine the stock wouldn't do well throughout history. At least I would think that's correct.

I guess I'm just trying to tie the simple approach of looking at a stock's history to be a good indicator of its potential as a viable investment to a deeper understanding of what or why its price history is what it is.



Yes --- growth in both top and bottom line is pretty darned important... and the stock price "normally" will reward those companies that can show growth in both those areas. Newer companies don't "normally" -- note I have to say normally lest someone find one company to use as an example to show I'm wrong :D - don't pay dividends etc because they don't have that long history of steady earnings. Higher P/E ratios are sometimes given to companies that can show they have outsized growth... because folks are willing to pay more for them and hope that they grow into the higher P/E.

[GregWeld]

Another "Investing 102" term..... UNCERTAINTY.

If you've ever listened to a business news channel - you've heard this term. "The markets hate uncertainty". To me - uncertainty equals undecided or unsure. What's that do to the market? A market takes BUYERS and sellers... if you're uncertain - you may NOT decide to buy.... and when that happens you get a down market.

I had warned in an earlier post that I thought as we approached the election that we might see a choppy market... people are unsure what their tax situation is going forward. They're unsure what the economy is going to do. There is no clear picture of what's ahead.

What you are seeing is exactly what I had expected. It's not rocket science... "WE" are normal human beings... and if we are uncertain - then so is everyone else. It's the same thing I've been preaching about when you're buying - use your own gut sense about a business... long lines at the check out? Great! An empty store - empty parking lot.... not so great. You're friends finding work and buying houses? Or are they selling everything they own and collecting unemployment... Obviously this "depends" - it depends on where you live - what industry you're in - your own economic surroundings etc. But in broad general terms - you get a sense for what's going on around you. You either feel optimistic or negative - OR - UNSURE. Uncertainty/unsure is the deer in the headlight... which means no commitment.

Now -- add to this -- we're in "EARNINGS SEASON" which means companies are just starting to report on their earnings -- and so far these seem to be coming DOWN... The market may have been a little optimistic about the "turn around". I think the USA is turning around - but we have those across the pond doing worse - which is more important? I think we're seeing that in companies reports such as UPS and FED EX etc reporting slowing "international" business. I would certainly expect that given the news for the last many months.

I've said in earlier posts that this year has been AMAZING -- it's been an investors dream! Everything has seemingly gone straight up. That's an easy market to feel good about. It's easy to buy. It's easy to hold. I personally have some outsized paper gains. Long term investors - people that have been in the market for the last 3+ years have seen their investments go up 100% in many cases... so now - what to do? Sell? Hold? Unsure? When it's unsure - they're not buying! Right? Maybe they just sell a little bit to lock in some capital gains at this years 15% rate... No biggie there -- unless you're in an uncertain position and then the buyers just aren't there to LIFT the price.

On big down days -- the one thing I have to remind myself of.... even if a stock is down $5 - that means SOMEONE paid that price for it... so there are buyers out there... they're just bargain hunting. They may only be nibbling. They may be averaging down.. but someone is buying or you wouldn't have ANY market at all!

NOW ---- If you're in dividend stocks for the long haul.... then you're dividend is buying at these lower prices - which means you buy more shares per dividend period which means you're compounding your returns FASTER... and buddy... That's a GOOD THING!! Remember that as the price comes down... the percentage of dividend rises... you get more shares that pay you a higher PERCENTAGE return and next quarter you pick up even more shares and so on.

In actual fact YOU WISH you'd have invested in 2007 - and the market went down another 30% and you'd bought a ton of shares CHEAP! 'Cause right now you'd be jumping for joy and wishing you'd have put even more money "to work"! :cheers:

[Sieg]

Well said Greg..........thanks AGAIN. :thumbsup:

[Sieg]

More on AT&T (T) Q3 earnings: FY 2012 free cash flow guidance bumped $2B to $18B or more. Smartphone sales of 6.1M, 4.7M iPhones activated. Wireless EBITDA service margin of 40.8%, on track to hit full-year guidance of 42.5%. Postpaid subscriber ARPU +2.4% Y/Y, the strongest growth in 6 quarters. On CNBC as the numbers crossed, Buffett has "no interest" in AT&T or VZ, saying he doesn't know what they would look like in 5-10 years. Shares +1.9% premarket

How old is Warren Buffet? Obviously he isn't letting age impact his fundamental strategies. :thumbsup:

[Vince@Meanstreets]

I don't feel like I'm playing with chump change, just no where near your league. But, only 32 1/2 years old so you've given me a goal and a path - and for that I'm extremely appreciative.

Don't even worry about that. Chump change or not its change. You have to start somewhere and you got a great start getting into this thread....if I had this when I moved my 401K 12 years ago I'd be alot better. Its what you do now and in the near future. Pay attention.


Thanks for the dividen list Greg, saved me a ton of time. :hail:


I have a feeling February is going to be buying season.

[GregWeld]

On the road === AGAIN! Did Seattle to Ogden... just arrived... On to Tucson tomorrow... and road racin' on Saturday and Sunday... then off to SEMA!


EEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHAAAAAAAA


Don't expect me to post much... it's dangerous to drive and text you know!!:unibrow: :D

[Ns RS]

Thanks to this thread I've opened a brokerage account and am now going to fund a ROTH account for the 1st time.

The problem is how can one best choose among their current pool of diversified stocks - the one(s) most suitable for ROTH investment? - Im 41 btw

My thinking is to buy all 5G worth of 1 stock and then add another 5G in a different sector each year thereafter.

Which among my current (17) stocks would be best to pick for ROTH? Should steady eddys always edge out the more riskier plays? ie Coke, Kmb vs ATT??

On one hand people will always drink Coke and need to wipe their behinds but- the integration and ubiquity of smart phone/tablets in our lives these days makes investing in more ATT that much more tempting.

Is the better solution to spread the 5G among 5 sectors at 1G each? Continued thanks for this thread that keeps on giving. :bow:

[toy71camaro]

Personally, i decided to do $1k increments in my ROTH IRA. Helped me start to diversify better I felt. And I can start trickling in those dividends sooner on multiple items.

[GregWeld]

I agree.... better to buy 5 different stocks and then next year buy 5 more
the third year you can go back and add to the 5 you want to...

[hifi875]

I agree.... better to buy 5 different stocks and then next year buy 5 more
the third year you can go back and add to the 5 you want to...
Exactly what I did back in February. Up 20 percent ytd

[westoz]

A big thanks to Greg and the rest of the posters :hail: . I have just opened an etrade account and started investing in Aussie shares. I have been meaning to for years but had been put off by the "complexity" of it all and have only invested in realestate.
Reading this thread has made investing so much simpler to understand, following the simple rules diversify, dividends and growth - I feel I am now moving forward towards my retirement plan. Once I get the hang of investing and feel more comfortable I'll look at opening an international account. Thanks again guys - best thread on the net.. :thumbsup:

[GregWeld]

Just be sure to remember the happy days -- and think LONG TERM -- cause there will be times when you'll have suicidal thoughts!

Pretty easy to look and think you're brilliant when the market is going your way.

Trust me -- you'll have completely different view when the market sucks.

The winners are the ones that can overcome and have a larger longer view. :cheers:

[westoz]

I should also mention that I was nearly convinced by a friends sister - had the plan and papers ready to sign ( she is a broker for JP morgan ) that I should use some of the equity in my properties to invest and use as a tax write off. Looking at this now it was pure madness, especially considering their fee's and her cut. Much happier now.:)

Now especially with a family on the way I really need to make the "right" decisions for our future - perfecting timing on reading this thread..

[hifi875]

It will go down for sure, because i own it. murphy follows me around alot.

[Sieg]

Sorry for the inconvenience, closed due to weather. :D

US Market closures due to severe weather in the New York area

Due to severe weather in the New York area, US equity and option markets will be closed on Monday, October 29, 2012. The bond market will close early at noon ET. There will be no Pre-Market Trading session or After Hours Trading session on Monday, October 29.

Please see the following press releases for more details:
NYSE: http://www.nyse.com/press/1351243418010.html
NASDAQ: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/TraderNews.aspx?id=ETA2012-44

Domestic equity and option orders placed while the markets are closed will be pending until the markets reopen. Cancelled orders will show as "cancel pending."

The Canadian Markets will be open on Monday, October 29, 2012, and Canadian equity orders will route to the Canadian exchanges. Please contact Charles Schwab's Global Investing Service at 1-800-992-4685 with any questions or for assistance with placing trades in Canada or other international markets.

[GregWeld]

See what happens when I go off to play?



:D

[Sieg]

Due to Lateral-G's chief strategist taking the day off and the potential lack of trading activity the markets have also decided to take the off.......:D

[GregWeld]

Buy tires manufacturers! I seem to by buying a lot of them lately.... :rofl:

[Sieg]

Buy tire manufacturers! I seem to by buying a lot of them lately.... :rofl:Thanks to your investing strategies you don't have to cringe when buying them!

I'll assume they have tire vendors with good pricing at the track similar to motorcycle track days?

[GregWeld]

Not to jack this INVESTING thread with car info.... but this is a car website!

LOL


The new Michellin Pilot Super Sports made the car (Audi R8 Spyder) far far quieter! They're not as thump over uneven pavement... and the ride is noticeably smoother. Sometimes there is a "blessing in disguise".... the PZeros aren't half the tire these new ones are.

:thumbsup:

[GregWeld]

Here's a quick look at ONE track day (5 - 20 minute sessions on a 2.75 mile track) did to a set of tires (PZeros).





http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/ad33/gregweld/The%20Road%20to%20SEMA/file-3.jpg

[Sieg]

You just started to get through the consumer rubber into the race rubber and swapped them out?! :D

Looks like you were having a real good time! :thumbsup:

[96z28ss]

Blame it on the wife driving.

[GregWeld]

Well --- opened up the account after a long day at SEMA -- and see Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is down hard (a buck seventy) === but of course a quick check to see why === and it's because they went "ex" dividend today... so they pay $1.26 per share....

Now only my feet hurt! And not my wallet (so much). :rofl:

[GregWeld]

With the Obama "win" (to me it's like he backed into it AGAIN - with barely half in favor) we wake up to a sell off in the market. No surprise here. So if you're wondering what should you do.... My advice would be to just sit back and watch for buys.

Remember -- if you're invested for the long haul - and that's a KEY STATEMENT -- then you will see your investments not be in the green column some times. BUT if you're invested in dividend stocks then they're going to keep paying - and they're going to be re-invested.... and over a 15 - 20 - 30 year timeframe you will be rewarded regardless of the taxes etc that people will stew over in the short term.

If you're living off the dividends - as I do - I sold half off all my holdings this morning. I have HUGE gains so want to lock in the long term capital gains at 15%. I will have a large pool of cash to begin to redeploy when I have more certainty in how my gains and income will be treated. Please remember that my holdings (that I use for this thread) are pretty large. Positions are in the 15 or 20 or 40 thousands of SHARES.... these are large numbers so if I sell half of a 40,000 share position - I still have 20,000 shares of "XXX". Again - I'm not trying to say "look at me" - I'm trying to show you and share with you all "my" thinking. It's easy for me to pull cash and profit out of the market temporarily and still have income and gain/loss and keep on truckin'. I still have a large Muni Bond portfolio which pays tax free income and I haven't done any moves there. I would - but the income that laddered bond portfolio pays - couldn't be re-invested in anything that's "as safe" and produces that 4% tax free. But as they mature (annually) I won't re-invest them in lower rate bonds...

So here's where the Obama "anti wealth" / "anti success" / "tax and spend" stance has a DIRECT AFFECT on someone like me.

I have an opportunity to invest in a 244 unit apartment complex in Tucson, AZ.... it would pay about 7%... but I WON'T make that commitment (which means I won't invest in it) because that investment doesn't pan out IF I'm going to pay 30 or 40% income taxes on the income stream. My guess is that the deal doesn't get done. Therefore the seller won't have a sale - and the potential investors will just sit on their cash because they're "uncertain". The sales people won't get the commissions so won't pay any taxes... and down the bowl the water flows.

That's why the USA NEEDS investments/investors and people that CREATE income. When you have income - you spend it - which creates income for others - and then every time that buck changes hands - the government takes a little cut of it. No spending - no changing hands - no taxes created. Real simple. :D

[XLexusTech]

With the Obama "win" (to me it's like he backed into it AGAIN - with barely half in favor) we wake up to a sell off in the market. No surprise here. So if you're wondering what should you do.... My advice would be to just sit back and watch for buys.

Remember -- if you're invested for the long haul - and that's a KEY STATEMENT -- then you will see your investments not be in the green column some times. BUT if you're invested in dividend stocks then they're going to keep paying - and they're going to be re-invested.... and over a 15 - 20 - 30 year timeframe you will be rewarded regardless of the taxes etc that people will stew over in the short term.

If you're living off the dividends - as I do - I sold half off all my holdings this morning. I have HUGE gains so want to lock in the long term capital gains at 15%. I will have a large pool of cash to begin to redeploy when I have more certainty in how my gains and income will be treated. Please remember that my holdings (that I use for this thread) are pretty large. Positions are in the 15 or 20 or 40 thousands of SHARES.... these are large numbers so if I sell half of a 40,000 share position - I still have 20,000 shares of "XXX". Again - I'm not trying to say "look at me" - I'm trying to show you and share with you all "my" thinking. It's easy for me to pull cash and profit out of the market temporarily and still have income and gain/loss and keep on truckin'. I still have a large Muni Bond portfolio which pays tax free income and I haven't done any moves there. I would - but the income that laddered bond portfolio pays - couldn't be re-invested in anything that's "as safe" and produces that 4% tax free. But as they mature (annually) I won't re-invest them in lower rate bonds...

So here's where the Obama "anti wealth" / "anti success" / "tax and spend" stance has a DIRECT AFFECT on someone like me.

I have an opportunity to invest in a 244 unit apartment complex in Tucson, AZ.... it would pay about 7%... but I WON'T make that commitment (which means I won't invest in it) because that investment doesn't pan out IF I'm going to pay 30 or 40% income taxes on the income stream. My guess is that the deal doesn't get done. Therefore the seller won't have a sale - and the potential investors will just sit on their cash because they're "uncertain". The sales people won't get the commissions so won't pay any taxes... and down the bowl the water flows.

That's why the USA NEEDS investments/investors and people that CREATE income. When you have income - you spend it - which creates income for others - and then every time that buck changes hands - the government takes a little cut of it. No spending - no changing hands - no taxes created. Real simple. :D


Not to get political but since al of my friends are pissed about the election outcome I am scratching my head as to why... On purely a finical basis if you income is sub 200K (like most of us) why would one say Obama over Romney or Visa versa? Asked another way if you were making 199K in income would your investment above still be a loser?

[GrabberGT]

With the Obama "win" (to me it's like he backed into it AGAIN - with barely half in favor) we wake up to a sell off in the market. No surprise here. So if you're wondering what should you do.... My advice would be to just sit back and watch for buys.

Remember -- if you're invested for the long haul - and that's a KEY STATEMENT -- then you will see your investments not be in the green column some times. BUT if you're invested in dividend stocks then they're going to keep paying - and they're going to be re-invested.... and over a 15 - 20 - 30 year timeframe you will be rewarded regardless of the taxes etc that people will stew over in the short term.

If you're living off the dividends - as I do - I sold half off all my holdings this morning. I have HUGE gains so want to lock in the long term capital gains at 15%. I will have a large pool of cash to begin to redeploy when I have more certainty in how my gains and income will be treated. Please remember that my holdings (that I use for this thread) are pretty large. Positions are in the 15 or 20 or 40 thousands of SHARES.... these are large numbers so if I sell half of a 40,000 share position - I still have 20,000 shares of "XXX". Again - I'm not trying to say "look at me" - I'm trying to show you and share with you all "my" thinking. It's easy for me to pull cash and profit out of the market temporarily and still have income and gain/loss and keep on truckin'. I still have a large Muni Bond portfolio which pays tax free income and I haven't done any moves there. I would - but the income that laddered bond portfolio pays - couldn't be re-invested in anything that's "as safe" and produces that 4% tax free. But as they mature (annually) I won't re-invest them in lower rate bonds...

So here's where the Obama "anti wealth" / "anti success" / "tax and spend" stance has a DIRECT AFFECT on someone like me.

I have an opportunity to invest in a 244 unit apartment complex in Tucson, AZ.... it would pay about 7%... but I WON'T make that commitment (which means I won't invest in it) because that investment doesn't pan out IF I'm going to pay 30 or 40% income taxes on the income stream. My guess is that the deal doesn't get done. Therefore the seller won't have a sale - and the potential investors will just sit on their cash because they're "uncertain". The sales people won't get the commissions so won't pay any taxes... and down the bowl the water flows.

That's why the USA NEEDS investments/investors and people that CREATE income. When you have income - you spend it - which creates income for others - and then every time that buck changes hands - the government takes a little cut of it. No spending - no changing hands - no taxes created. Real simple. :D

Not to get political but since al of my friends are pissed about the election outcome I am scratching my head as to why... On purely a finical basis if you income is sub 200K (like most of us) why would one say Obama over Romney or Visa versa? Asked another way if you were making 199K in income would your investment above still be a loser?

I'd also like more info here. I've been tossing this around for a while regarding the proposed tax hike on Capital gains and such and am curious why you would choose not to make that investment. Receiving a dividend check regardless of size as a result of your investment is still more money in your pocket. Just not as much now that you're paying 30% tax rather than 15%. Im not saying its right or wrong or that Im in favor of tax hikes but just trying to wrap my head around it.

[toy71camaro]

I'm GUESSING based off what i read in Greg's comment, that he's not going to tie up that amount of cash in an investment that only is going to return 7%, and then be taxed 30-40% of that money, netting him a 3-4% return. I'm guessing there will likely be a better ROI to be had out there than that 3-4% for the amount of money to be tied up for that amount of time.

But i could be totally wrong. thats just how I understood it. lol

[GregWeld]

Not to get political but since al of my friends are pissed about the election outcome I am scratching my head as to why... On purely a finical basis if you income is sub 200K (like most of us) why would one say Obama over Romney or Visa versa? Asked another way if you were making 199K in income would your investment above still be a loser?



Like most POLITICAL discussions -- it's about IDEOLOGY rather than actual fact. With this particular POTUS... you're either with him - or against just about everything he stands for. When you have that - you have people that are either elated or they're PO'd.

Frankly -- and I don't want to turn this into a political discussion because nobody "wins" those and there really is no agreement to be had... but the Republican PARTY is to blame here. For the second election in a row they have given us someone that can't win... thereby delivering a victory to the Democrats. You can't run an "ultra rich/lilly white/Mormon" guy that even part of the lilly white rich guys can't get behind... and win. I believe that if you would have taken ONE of the two negatives out (pick one - Rich - White - Mormon) the outcome might have been different.

[XLexusTech]

Forgetting the political.. the pending legislation/climate (next 4 years) will it effect those who make 199K and less from a PURE tax impact?

What I have read thus far is the people who are effected are those who benefit from handouts and those who make over 200K... is that wrong?

[GregWeld]

I'd also like more info here. I've been tossing this around for a while regarding the proposed tax hike on Capital gains and such and am curious why you would choose not to make that investment. Receiving a dividend check regardless of size as a result of your investment is still more money in your pocket. Just not as much now that you're paying 30% tax rather than 15%. Im not saying its right or wrong or that Im in favor of tax hikes but just trying to wrap my head around it.


Property investments - and in particular INVESTMENT/COMMERCIAL properties are valued solely based on the return. The return is weighed against other returns offered elsewhere. It's just math. The only real way to invest in these types of properties is the combination of the cash flow and the increase in value when sold - so just like stocks - it's the TOTAL RETURN.

So two things come into play here. These are multi million dollar investments.... 7% return tied up for 10 years or so looks great if you think interest rates and returns would be "sub" that. But if we are going to tax these types of investments at ordinary income rates - then you have to take 40% off that 7%... and if we go to sell - and normal interest rates are lets say 5% 10 years from now - then the selling price of the property would be less than we paid... because the sales price will be based off the income the property can produce.

Now - if over the holding period we can raise rental rates - fine - then there's more cash flow etc - but then that would also mean that we're most likely seeing INFLATION... that inflation rate baked into the final sales price to another investor group would also affect the asking price.

Basically -- I'm making a 10 year "bet" on interest rates - property values etc. Since I'm not certain about much of that.... then I'll choose NOT to make that bet and stay more liquid rather than lock up a couple million into an investment that is NOT liquid at all and that I can't call the shots on because I'm not the managing partner - I'm only along for the ride.

[GregWeld]

Forgetting the political.. the pending legislation/climate (next 4 years) will it effect those who make 199K and less from a PURE tax impact?

What I have read thus far is the people who are effected are those who benefit from handouts and those who make over 200K... is that wrong?



Those that are lower earners - are probably not big investors... their incomes may be dependent on OTHERS making investments and building stuff etc. So rightly or wrongly - they're affected by what others are going to do.

If you're a real estate sales person - you depend on TRANSACTIONS for your income... no transactions - no income. Ditto the home inspector - the loan officer... None of whom probably make $250K per year. This is just ONE example but you can multiply this for almost every industry where the "average guy" works. If we don't build buildings - we don't need workers/welders/steel/glass/excavators/ and on and on.

Let's go back to when they put a 10% LUXORY tax on Boats over a certain $$ value... and Furs... and Cars over a certain $$ value. What happened? 60,000 (actual fact - look it up) people BUILDING boats lost their jobs because the rich guys buying those boats just didn't buy them... and high end car sales plummeted. They changed that tax but by then it was too late for all the "little people" that lost their job.

People have CHOICES.... the more income and more wealth someone has - the more choices they have. They choose where and how to invest and when you think about it - in reality - if ONE rich guy buys a 100' yacht - there were maybe 100 people working to build it.... so when that guy decides to NOT buy that... then you have fall out.

Obama doesn't understand ANY of that - because he's never had a real job or run a business... :unibrow:

[Bucketlist2012]

Well, it is what it is. I am not posting politics, but my financial opinion.

I am not a really wealthy guy, so this is going to be an interesting time for me.

I think the election is part of the "punish the wealthy " tour..But strangely , those that voted for Obama end up shooting themselves in the head and not the foot. Many are young and see this as a "victory"..I think long term it won't be a victory for them at all..

If we were sidelining money due to unceratinty, what do they think we will do now...Debt,Taxes, Obamacare, ect...will only have brutal consequences on where we put our money..So if we don't invest, then Jobs are not created or kept..

I only see the middle getting crushed in the near future...The poor will stay as they are, and the really wealthy will weather the storm..The middle will suffer. Just my opinion, but sadly i think I am right..

[GrabberGT]

Property investments - and in particular INVESTMENT/COMMERCIAL properties are valued solely based on the return. The return is weighed against other returns offered elsewhere. It's just math. The only real way to invest in these types of properties is the combination of the cash flow and the increase in value when sold - so just like stocks - it's the TOTAL RETURN.

So two things come into play here. These are multi million dollar investments.... 7% return tied up for 10 years or so looks great if you think interest rates and returns would be "sub" that. But if we are going to tax these types of investments at ordinary income rates - then you have to take 40% off that 7%... and if we go to sell - and normal interest rates are lets say 5% 10 years from now - then the selling price of the property would be less than we paid... because the sales price will be based off the income the property can produce.

Now - if over the holding period we can raise rental rates - fine - then there's more cash flow etc - but then that would also mean that we're most likely seeing INFLATION... that inflation rate baked into the final sales price to another investor group would also affect the asking price.

Basically -- I'm making a 10 year "bet" on interest rates - property values etc. Since I'm not certain about much of that.... then I'll choose NOT to make that bet and stay more liquid rather than lock up a couple million into an investment that is NOT liquid at all and that I can't call the shots on because I'm not the managing partner - I'm only along for the ride.

I think I follow. And now compound that with your other example and people have lost out on job opportunities. Now would you have the same outlook on purchasing 20K shares of XYZ div. paying stock or is that business as usually assuming all other factors remains the same.

[XLexusTech]

Yes the big guys wont have the ability to buy a X Million dollar real estate investment... that really wont effect the home inspector for example. who makes all of his $$ form the middle class buyers who need a mortgage...

What I am learning here is that the ones that are affected believe in the ole Trickle down effect... and all I am saying is..
I don't need an hand out.. don't want to wait for the therotitical trickle down stuff.. let me get my own and don't tax the hell out of me...
What i think I am learning is the threshold for that is 200K and that covers 95% (from the bureau of taxation's website) of the US population including me
:-)

[96z28ss]

oh man I was doing pretty good on my IRA but its a blood bath today.
It may go into negative territory.

[realcoray]

Yes the big guys wont have the ability to buy a X Million dollar real estate investment... that really wont effect the home inspector for example. who makes all of his $$ form the middle class buyers who need a mortgage...

What I am learning here is that the ones that are affected believe in the ole Trickle down effect... and all I am saying is..
I don't need an hand out.. don't want to wait for the therotitical trickle down stuff.. let me get my own and don't tax the hell out of me...
What i think I am learning is the threshold for that is 200K and that covers 95% (from the bureau of taxation's website) of the US population including me
:-)

In terms of tax impact for those of us making under 200-250k, I wouldn't anticipate any notable change unless you are into real estate, where the capital gain taxes going up could impact you (you'd be making a profit, but keeping less of it).

Keep in mind that if actual tax rates go up to levels from the 90s, it's still progressive meaning that your taxes would go up a few percentage points for income above a certain level. Let's say I make 205k and the tax rate for income over 200k goes up by 2%. I pay just 2% more on the 5k as a result of that increase.

Obviously in the case of some of these types of gains, or your situation the actual increase may be higher and for investment purposes you have options. Greg has talked about municiple bonds which may be an option since they are less/not exposed to these shifts. Chances are though that many other people will be thinking the same thing and the yields may drop in turn making it effectively the same as it was in terms of actual yield compared to other bonds.

Also, to keep things in perspective note that tax rates right now are historically low. Just about 50 years ago, the top tax rate was > 90%.

[XLexusTech]

In terms of tax impact for those of us making under 200-250k, I wouldn't anticipate any notable change unless you are into real estate, where the capital gain taxes going up could impact you (you'd be making a profit, but keeping less of it).

Keep in mind that if actual tax rates go up to levels from the 90s, it's still progressive meaning that your taxes would go up a few percentage points for income above a certain level. Let's say I make 205k and the tax rate for income over 200k goes up by 2%. I pay just 2% more on the 5k as a result of that increase.

Obviously in the case of some of these types of gains, or your situation the actual increase may be higher and for investment purposes you have options. Greg has talked about municiple bonds which may be an option since they are less/not exposed to these shifts. Chances are though that many other people will be thinking the same thing and the yields may drop in turn making it effectively the same as it was in terms of actual yield compared to other bonds.

Also, to keep things in perspective note that tax rates right now are historically low. Just about 50 years ago, the top tax rate was > 90%.
Yes that basically what i was getting at... purely from a tax perspective this is a better outcome for 95% of the population.. So why is everyone crying about the taxes that come form Romney losing.. confused...:question:

[Bucketlist2012]

Yes that basically what i was getting at... purely from a tax perspective this is a better outcome for 95% of the population.. So why is everyone crying about the taxes that come form Romney losing.. confused...:question:

Dividend stocks taxed from 15% to at least 25% or more ? Not too confusing at all...

Or if they go from 15% to Income tax rates of ???? That is the problem...Or at least one of the many problems...:cheers:

[GregWeld]

I think I follow. And now compound that with your other example and people have lost out on job opportunities. Now would you have the same outlook on purchasing 20K shares of XYZ div. paying stock or is that business as usually assuming all other factors remains the same.



Well the MAJOR difference in stocks vs hard assets is that stocks are liquid. I can change that (stocks) investment with a few keystrokes... with a commercial building I have marketing time - commission costs - marketing costs... and I'm a hostage to what the prevailing market is -- and what my PARTNERS want to do. With stocks or bonds -- it's just me -- and $8.95 for a buy and a sale... whether it's $500 or $5,000,000.... :D

[realcoray]

Yes that basically what i was getting at... purely from a tax perspective this is a better outcome for 95% of the population.. So why is everyone crying about the taxes that come form Romney losing.. confused...:question:

If you believe that the tax money will just be thrown into an incinerator (or given to poorer people), you might just dislike the idea of higher taxes even if it doesn't impact you.

The reality is that whoever won, chances are taxes on the higher earners would have to increase. You can't cut your way out of debt without tremendous economic issues (see: Greece), and you can't tax your way out either and both sides fundementally know this. Expect a balanced package of cuts and tax increases, none of which is drastic, but some of which may affect you in one way or another.

[srh3trinity]

The taxation will be interesting. I am a recent graduate from Residency and practicing hospital medicine. I make a nice living. Doctors have taken a 30 percent pay cut or more from Medicare in the not too recent past. My education cost north of 200K and that has an impact on what I bring home. It seems as though there is a breaking point with taxes and your income. I can influence mine easily by how hard I choose to work. I work 16 plus hours a day now, but if this level of work pushes a person into a higher tax bracket, some of my colleagues will choose to work less hours and bring home about the same net dollars and spend more time with their family. If this happens, it will contribute further to the supply/demand issues we are going to have with physicians as baby boomers age. You are almost de-incentivizing hard work. I don't understand the thought of you make more, you should pay more.
Of course, if I become a government employee with Obamacare, I imagine I won't have much control over my tax bracket. It stinks to finally make some money and then the game changes on you in spite of your hard work.

[GregWeld]

A couple of words on "taxes".


It's not that ANYONE can or can't pay more percentage in taxes.... What we're "politically" talking about though is different:

Fundamental belief #1.

The government is better at spending your money than you are... therefore you should just go along with whatever the government has planned for your money. i.e., send more to China for debt service... pay for Obamacare... pay for Welfare... pay for more government "programs" etc.


Fundamental belief #2.


Let me earn as much money as possible (the American way) - pay a percentage of taxes to the government... let them do with it as they wish - let ME spend money on investing to make even more money... pay more taxes - and spend money buying STUFF which then the person selling it to me pays taxes... and he's making money so he's spending money so the guy he buys stuff from makes money and buys stuff from someone else... Each transaction there had a tax paid associated with it.

Fundamentally - nobody is really sure which way is "the best"... but I sure as hell know that when I'm making money and spending money... the economy benefits. Sending more interest payments to China... Taking care of the illegals in the emergency room... I'm not so certain about that. I look at EUROPE and see their socialist, high tax rate, get "free" everything way of government and I don't see that working so well for them.

The countries that do the best - are the countries that actually MAKE STUFF.... China being a shining example of an economy that has gone bananas because they're a manufacturing powerhouse! They went from making stick and twig brooms to making iPhones.... and we're now borrowing from them -- so we can give that iPhone to people that make NOTHING - do NOTHING - and employ no one.

[Bucketlist2012]

A couple of words on "taxes".


It's not that ANYONE can or can't pay more percentage in taxes.... What we're "politically" talking about though is different:

Fundamental belief #1.

The government is better at spending your money than you are... therefore you should just go along with whatever the government has planned for your money. i.e., send more to China for debt service... pay for Obamacare... pay for Welfare... pay for more government "programs" etc.


Fundamental belief #2.


Let me earn as much money as possible (the American way) - pay a percentage of taxes to the government... let them do with it as they wish - let ME spend money on investing to make even more money... pay more taxes - and spend money buying STUFF which then the person selling it to me pays taxes... and he's making money so he's spending money so the guy he buys stuff from makes money and buys stuff from someone else... Each transaction there had a tax paid associated with it.

Fundamentally - nobody is really sure which way is "the best"... but I sure as hell know that when I'm making money and spending money... the economy benefits. Sending more interest payments to China... Taking care of the illegals in the emergency room... I'm not so certain about that. I look at EUROPE and see their socialist, high tax rate, get "free" everything way of government and I don't see that working so well for them.

The countries that do the best - are the countries that actually MAKE STUFF.... China being a shining example of an economy that has gone bananas because they're a manufacturing powerhouse! They went from making stick and twig brooms to making iPhones.... and we're now borrowing from them -- so we can give that iPhone to people that make NOTHING - do NOTHING - and employ no one.

As usual, you have a great way to make a point....

Well written and to the point...No B.S. and both sides of the coin. Let the reader decide what they believe...Good Job..:cheers:

[realcoray]

The taxation will be interesting. I am a recent graduate from Residency and practicing hospital medicine. I make a nice living. Doctors have taken a 30 percent pay cut or more from Medicare in the not too recent past. My education cost north of 200K and that has an impact on what I bring home. It seems as though there is a breaking point with taxes and your income. I can influence mine easily by how hard I choose to work. I work 16 plus hours a day now, but if this level of work pushes a person into a higher tax bracket, some of my colleagues will choose to work less hours and bring home about the same net dollars and spend more time with their family. If this happens, it will contribute further to the supply/demand issues we are going to have with physicians as baby boomers age. You are almost de-incentivizing hard work. I don't understand the thought of you make more, you should pay more.
Of course, if I become a government employee with Obamacare, I imagine I won't have much control over my tax bracket. It stinks to finally make some money and then the game changes on you in spite of your hard work.

There is no situation in which you work less and bring home the the same because of tax brackets assuming the amount you work is tied directly to your income. You don't suddenly enter a 100% tax bracket.

Not to mention that tax brackets have only been going down for basically this entire century. The real reasons for supply/demand issues for doctors are varied, and the government certainly plays a part but you can't simultaneously say you should be taxed even less than you are now, and complain about medicare reimbursements that the government is basically putting on a credit card.

[GregWeld]

Okay --- so let's get back on INVESTING....


Politics will never be "settled"... and so far I've managed to live well regardless of who is in office, for some 59 years. In the end - it's the S.S.D.D. :D

[glassman]

Still, good info. No bashing, just mature opinions. WHICH IS WHY THIS IS THE BEST THREAD GOING!!!

Because without the beans (coin), we can't fart (make car stuff and drive faster etc)

Good luck all in the time to come, i'm a newb investor and am cautionly optimistic, cause we'll need it. I wish i could contribute more(data), but i is still gettin edjumakated...

Mike

[GregWeld]

Still, good info. No bashing, just mature opinions. WHICH IS WHY THIS IS THE BEST THREAD GOING!!!

Because without the beans (coin), we can't fart (make car stuff and drive faster etc)

Good luck all in the time to come, i'm a newb investor and am cautionly optimistic, cause we'll need it. I wish i could contribute more(data), but i is still gettin edjumakated...

Mike



Yep Mike.... serves no point to call names - or make dumb statements. You just work with the info you have and plan a plan and work it. As things change you adjust. If you don't - you don't make it. In the end - everything will be fine... and we'll all make money IN THE LONG RUN - and that's the goal.

:thumbsup:

[GregWeld]

Stocks that would be hurt by Obama's preference for stiff regulations, such as banks, sold off sharply. And to make matters worse Wednesday, worries about Europe's debt crisis returned to the top of investors' what-to-worry-about list.

Add it all up and what you get is a "Molotov cocktail that created a pretty severe bout of selling," says Andy Busch, a public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

To say the negative mood hurt stocks would be an understatement, as Wall Street was awash in red ink all day. The damage inflicted was severe. About $400 billion in stock market value vanished in the trading session, according to Wilshire Associates.

[bdahlg68]

So there are some people here wondering why some people might be a bit upset about taxing people that make over 250k / year. I am one one of the upset people and I'll try to explain a bit why even though I will fall under 250k. While my taxes are unlikely to change this year because most of my dividend investments are in a tax deferred account, my net worth took a pretty sharp stick in the eye today. Why? Because of all the examples Greg and others have mentioned. We have a huge amount of uncertainty. We don't have a plan. We don't know what taxes are going to look like for the next 4 years. We don't know how the fiscal cliff is going to be addressed. I can deal with a day down 2%. Unfortunately, there is a good chance to have lots of 2% down days with this uncertainty. And just in case you haven't connected all the dots, the Weld's of the world pull out first, and John Q Public's 401k pulls out last. So all those 401k's of people making under 250k per year lose a HUGE percentage of these market swings. And while people under 250k / year won't pay more taxes, you have a big drop in worth. And while those over 250k / year might pay a higher tax percentage of their income in taxes, the gap between these two groups tends to widen. Like Greg mentioned. Tax revenue is easy to generate when big money is moving. When its not, trouble brews and no tax plan is viable.

[Flash68]

I'll just say I'm not happy and leave it at that.

I'm with Todd on this (it happens sometimes :lol:) positive thinking and just go about your business and control what you can control. That's all any of us can do.

This thread has dabbled in Real Estate and interest rate talk here and there so I'll share what I'm doing. The building my business has been in since starting in 2006 is being torn down soon for condos. So I negotiated a shorter lease end (he didn't care, he is knocking down the building soon anyway and would have had to compensate me somehow for an early term on his part) and wanted to control our destiny and timing vs getting a 60 notice to vacate or something like that in the next year.

I have liked where commercial real estate prices have been and now they have converged with insanely low rates. We are buying a commercial condo nearby with 50% more space than we need (to grow into) and it's a nicer building.

SBA loan, 10% down, combined interest rate in the 4's, and the price is 38 cents on the dollar of what the high watermark was in 2008. I like those numbers.

[GregWeld]

Dave (Flash for those that don't know),


BRILLIANT!:cheers:



If someone IS NOT taking advantage of the greatest "gift" in the last 100 years, i.e., LOW relative cost and historically low interest rates.... I feel sorry for them.

[WSSix]

Well, then add me to that list. I'm simply not in a position to buy a house right now. That's a big part of the reason I'm trying to get out of the oil industry and back to GA with a more steady hours wise job. I simply can't make any long term plans beyond saving and money management. I'm tired of renting.



I sure do wish I hadn't looked at my stocks today, lol. Should have waited to get into the stock game til today. Would have been some good sale prices.

[JKnight]

Even though I am invested for the very long term 30+ years, I'm starting to think that going to cash through the end of the year might be worth the sell trade commissions.

Edit: I won't do it, but I have to say it's crossed my mind.

[GregWeld]

I sure do wish I hadn't looked at my stocks today, lol. Should have waited to get into the stock game til today. Would have been some good sale prices.


It NEVER works that way. The longer you wait - you just miss out. And when the market takes a dump -- then you wouldn't buy because you'd be afraid to pull the trigger.... then the market goes UP 500 points and then you jump in so you'd have missed the "sale". Trust me.... you're thinking way too short term. Buy - get the dividends - they keep coming regardless of the price you paid... and 3+ years from now - you'll look back and wish you'd have bought more when you did.


:cheers:

[WSSix]

Oh no, I'm not trying to time anything or looking short term. It's just one of those days when you go damn! when you look at the value of your assets. That's all. I'm sure it will come back up and I do like the dividends :D

[GregWeld]

Oh no, I'm not trying to time anything or looking short term. It's just one of those days when you go damn! when you look at the value of your assets. That's all. I'm sure it will come back up and I do like the dividends :D

Remember --- When I say something to YOU --- I'm also trying to say something to EVERYONE that reads this thread....


I feel your pain -- just multiply it by "X" amount (pick a large number) 'cause nobody is immune to this rout!

Ask me how the 2000 shares of Apple worked out.... No... don't.... I don't want to start weeping in my keyboard. :lol:

[GregWeld]

Here's one more reason I shy away from the "hot" IPO's (Initial Public Offerings).... because usually THEY SUCK! :lol:


It's GAMBLING not investing.... when you buy an unknown earnings stream (or in most of these cases NO earnings!).



Cut and pasted this little "gem"....



Groupon was already the worst-performing major stock in America in 2012 and the third-quarter debacle will only add to the stock carnage. In after-hours trading immediately following the earnings release, the stock fell by 15.8% to $3.30. Groupon’s IPO priced one year ago at $20. Groupon was arguably already the worst of this era’s three big tech IPO’s, which included Zynga and Facebook.

[Rybar]

Ask me how the 2000 shares of Apple worked out.... No... don't.... I don't want to start weeping in my keyboard. :lol:

Man, Apple has been dropping I have been thinking about your post. I wonder if this is one of the reasons why:

http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/08/samsungs-galaxy-s-iii-overtakes-the-iphone-4s-as-the-worlds-best-selling-smartphone-in-q3-2012/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=share+button&utm_content=Samsung%E2%80%99s+Galaxy+S+III+overtak es+the+iPhone+4S+as+the+world%E2%80%99s+best-selling+smartphone+in+Q3+2012&utm_campaign=social+media

[GregWeld]

Man, Apple has been dropping I have been thinking about your post. I wonder if this is one of the reasons why:

http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/08/samsungs-galaxy-s-iii-overtakes-the-iphone-4s-as-the-worlds-best-selling-smartphone-in-q3-2012/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=share+button&utm_content=Samsung%E2%80%99s+Galaxy+S+III+overtak es+the+iPhone+4S+as+the+world%E2%80%99s+best-selling+smartphone+in+Q3+2012&utm_campaign=social+media



Well -- you never really know... but my guess is based on age old money management. i.e., People tend to sell the stocks with the biggest GAINS first. So given Apples (AAPL) outsized gains... if a guy wants to lock in his 15% Long Term Capital Gains tax... he'd want to sell some of this stock. As more and more people do that - it starts a cascading of selling... because as the stock drops - more people rush to lock in these huge gains.

While there is always a "basic" or fundamental reason to own a stock (or buy a stock)... human nature is hard to factor out. When shares are going nuts on the upside - everyone piles in - and drives the prices even higher which attracts even more buying. It works the same way on the way down.

If you want a prime example of this - just look at the housing bubble. EVERYONE wanted to buy a house - or buy a house and flip it... on the way UP.... when the prices stopped going up and started to tip over the edge - the rush to sell exacerbated the decline in prices. Then you had a period when NOBODY wanted to buy a house - at any price. Even though my brain would tell me that is when you want to buy. Buy low... is how you make money not buying at the top.

That is what I think we're seeing in the market right now. There's a ton of gain in the market in general over the last couple of years. We're coming into year end. There is uncertainty over the tax treatment and possible negative changes... so why not lock in what you have and wait to see what happens.

For long term INVESTORS that doesn't work out well.... you'll sell at the wrong time and buy at the wrong time. It's better to just add to what you have at lower prices when you get the opportunity. Go back and check out the long term charts and see (be re-enforced) that these "blips" happen in the market. So for IRAs/ROTHs etc -- steady is the course.

For me - or people like me - that actually live off their investments... we have to do things a little differently. I try to get liquid if I think a buying opportunity is in the works. Lock in some gains and then sit and wait. Remember - as prices drop - the yield RISES.... Living off that yield, I like 5% over 3.5% so I'm always HOPING stocks have a melt down and I can buy and raise my yield/return.

My guess is Apple, in particular, comes out with earnings and sales numbers that just crush everyone else - and it will be off to the races again. But in the meantime people will lock in those gains.

But I've been wrong before so this is just another "investing 102" discussion of what may (or may not) be what we're seeing.

[mdprovee]

Yes Apple is killing me...I want to pul out, but am patiently waiting for it to come back. We will see if that is the right decision.