How Economy Affects Our Hobby?

[bill amsley]

WHATS EVERONES VIEW ON OUR CURRENT ECONIOMIC FORECAST AND THE CUSTOM/PRO TOURING HOBBY. the only reason i ask is that i just saw the REACTOR in the mustang trader for 350k. if that car is only worth 350k what is the average pro touring cars real value? the only reason i ask this question is that i thought the reactor was the most creative custom car ive ever seen. bill

[tgvettes]

I'm 44 and I have been working on muscle cars since I was 15-16. I must say that I think a lot of these cars today are way over priced even though a lot of work and money went in to building them. How much something is worth is obviously up to who wants it. I must say that if the economy goes bad
(right now to me it is more media bs then reality) I think all hobby cars will go way down in value. To me a high end pro touring car today should at the most be $150K.
this is just my 25 cents, I'm sure a lot will disagree.

Tonny

[Garage Dog 65]

I had wondered the same. Cost for energy going up - has trickled into just about everything from shipping - to production of raw materials. Everyone is feeling the pain of that RIGHT now. (I also agree that the media is BSing a ton of this - but maybe I'm just 'bitter'.... )

One other area that I wonder will be affected (not by energy) is labor in our hobby.

Background: In manufacturing and recently in aviation - the final squeeze to get costs outta the product have been labor. In manufacturing it's been completely moved South or to Asia. In aviation, labor was maintained in the airline - but at a very high cost. Over the past 5 years labor has been contracted out to small vendors and Repair Stations that pay their folks about 2/3rds what airlines paid - and they also receive reduced benefits - lowering charged labor costs even more. Airlines simply couldn't compete with those lower labor costs. China is right on the verge of producing small and large transport category aircraft with a very small labor component in the price. (Boeing and Airbus will get slammed)

So I wonder when that trend/effect will come into our hobby ? Or can it like we've seen in Manufacturing and Aviation examples above ?? Who are already vending labor to other countries to build parts/products. How do you pro shops deal with constant increases in labor (and underlying rise in benefits costs) while still getting those craftsman/artisans that everyone wants. Does anyone see a day where labor in our hobby will come from South or even overseas ? Will it be cheaper to 'crate' a completed project from someplace like China ? (fill out the form - pick the build specs - pick your color combo and put 50% down...) Will the cost of energy at the shop level eventually price your services into extinction ?

As a (now unemployed) business manager - I have tons of these types of questions of our industry/hobby ......

Jim

[awr68]

Was just watching a show yeasterday, HP I think it was and Vic Jr was saying that he knows he could have his products manufactured over seas for less...but the will NEVER happen.

I wonder how much is really saved (with the rising fuel/shipping costs) by the time they ship the contaners (parts) from Asia to the US?

At least with an OD trans. and for many EFI in our cars we get much better MPG than some other forms of hot rodding!

Good topic guys!

[DOOM]

I'm 44 and I have been working on muscle cars since I was 15-16. I must say that I think a lot of these cars today are way over priced even though a lot of work and money went in to building them. How much something is worth is obviously up to who wants it. I must say that if the economy goes bad
(right now to me it is more media bs then reality) I think all hobby cars will go way down in value. To me a high end pro touring car today should at the most be $150K.
this is just my 25 cents, I'm sure a lot will disagree.

Tonny

Well said:thumbsup: Im right with ya on th media BS:mad:

[byndbad914]

I don't think the media is really BSing that much. Sure, I am amazed at what gets sensationalized and how, but that said, relevant to this hobby:

one friend does accessory sales and installs in SoCal and had a ton of dealers as clients. He says he has hardly made a dime since Oct!!! (just talked to him a couple days ago) and that as far as car sales goes, no extras whatsoever and it seems that everyone is buying the cheapest, smallest ****box cars due to fuel prices.

Another has a performance sales biz that does pretty darn well with nationwide sales (and some international). I withhold the name as many here may know the place. Anyway, Jan and Feb are his worst months at around $120K gross sales with typical monthly sales around $180K-$200K. This Jan was down over 70%!!! Feb was down 50%!! March was shaping up to be pretty weak as well (talked to him right at the end of the month and it wasn't looking great). So he is REALLY seeing the affects.

As for me I work in aerospace and my job is questionable at this point. It is starting to feel like the early to mid-90s when nobody in that industry could find a job. Gov't is cutting spending in the BILLIONS which is big cuts in that industry. In my tiny section of LockMart (300 people in the group) there were 9 of us in my area of expertise, there are 4 now since Jan due to work being cut and I am the next guy on the block. The other 3 are looking for work that appears steady, so they may dwindle down by attrition anyway, but point is we HALVED our staff in 3 months, one guy senior to me runs out of work in about 3 months as his current program finishes, and my charge # is 'til about August or so and rumors of cuts to that are looking to not be rumors at all as of last week.

So get ready folks, things are going to get worse before they get better IMO. We are in a war that we can never finish, Standard & Poor and Moody were allowed to rate essentially junk debt at A grade and yet there are no repercussions to them (some people should be going to jail for rating debt that was mostly sub-prime notes at 100%+ value borrowed at A-grades, there were hands in pockets there), then you have the gov't spending even more of our tax dollars bailing out a potential $29 BILLION dollars of that debt when I busted my butt, moved to another state because homes were too expensive in CA, and so forth to buy a home on a 30yr fixed, conforming loan because I knew how completely stupid people were to use ARMs, etc and instead of letting the banks take a big suck on those notes... there goes my hard earned tax dollars to fix those loans. Tax dollars that essentially support my industry, so watch me lose my home cuz I lose my job while the gov't uses money they should use on tech to bail out banks that hung themselves and of all people should KNOW better.

While getting my MBA at UCLA, around 2002 or early 2003 a gal from Countrywide came into my fixed income class - the only thing they were hiring was RISK ANALYSIS because they were trying to figure out how much risk was really assoc with those BS loans. Yet sold them right up until BK last year... you gonna tell me that there isn't something criminal to that??? They KNEW by 02, and really knew all along (how could you not!) that debt was very risky and were trying to game how much they were going to win v. lose with risk analysis. That gambling is fine in the markets, but why the gov't starts bailing out banks for gambling... WTF is with that!?

My 10yr plan of looking outside of the US has become a 5 yr plan, and if my job goes away, maybe a 1 yr plan. Fires me up cuz I know vets all the way back to WWII and one that ended up in a concentration camp fighting for this country and we are giving it all away to the illegals (actually the white m%$# f#@$#@s that employ them) and the stupid. When exactly did capitalism become socialism, in fact communism anyway??? I have no desire to work at my potential so everyone that doesn't can have a piece. If that is how it will be, then I will go elsewhere; somewhere I can reap the benefits of the socialism I pay into.

wow, that was a soapbox if I ever saw one :unibrow:

Long story short, the economy IS hurting the hobby. I paid $4 for diesel here in CO the other day and it is more elsewhere, so that alone cuts into how much I spend on other stuff. I have been eating at home more too (fiancee works in restaurants and they are slowing down too BTW). I didn't race a couple weeks ago just out of concern for spending $500 on a one day deal ($150 just fuel in the truck as it is a tank down and back).

[907rs]

So I wonder when that trend/effect will come into our hobby ?
Jim

It's been happening for while now to a certain extent. I know of a few top name companies that are having their cranks and rods forged overseas. I feel it's only a matter of time before more manufacturing moves in that direction.

[Garage Dog 65]

So if industry moves manufacturing to non-US - and I think it's inevatable (God BLESS Vic on his stance and determination - it will be a tough road for sure) - will labor have to do the same ? Example: the US Auto manufacturing industry in standing on the cliff right now due to it's labor and benefits costs - will the US resolve to keep it here and pay the price (I say not likely) - or buy global companies cars.

Will pro shops start using contracted labor like other industries (verses internal) and will/can it ever be on a global level. (I'll leave out the home hobby guys - because, well we'll do stuff even when it will lose money in a big way - ME included...)

Is the car culture limited to a few countries - making it a small market that won't get targeted (G/PT types being an even small component of the overall culture - maybe hot rodding would go first, if at all) How about some of our member from non-US jumping in who are doing G/PT cars there. I'd be interested in what additional costs they see - even while they buy US cars and products and incure the shipping too.

Maybe SEMA and other assns are already discussing this stuff. Is there a member here from one of those ?

Great topic - Man I could talk about this one all day...

Here's an interesting read - look for the story on SkyBus. Talk about reducing/removing costs. Almost no employees beyond the Board and a few key internal indivuduals. Everything was leased and/or contracted out resulting in a true virtual airline model. It recently failed due to (the ecomomy) energy costs.

[bentfab]

Tim,
Well said!!! You explained exactly how I feel. I've been busting my a$$ and paying into taxes so the rest of this world can reap the benifits of us hard working blue colar works (which b.t.w in my opinion made this country!!).
People,customers and friends have been asking me if buissnes is good. I hav'nt realy seen a slow down on my end but it all depends on what my customers do for a living. I think this country took a dive because of good old Country Wide giveing loans to Juan Valdes the gardner who magicaly could move into a $650,000 home mowing lawns. I know this first hand because my sister inlaw was an underwriter and her boss was telling her to aprove loans when they could'nt aford to go to McDonalds. So thats my cents on the matter.

[Mick Mc]

We are in a war that we can never finish, Standard & Poor and Moody were allowed to rate essentially junk debt at A grade and yet there are no repercussions to them (some people should be going to jail for rating debt that was mostly sub-prime notes at 100%+ value borrowed at A-grades, there were hands in pockets there), then you have the gov't spending even more of our tax dollars bailing out a potential $29 BILLION dollars of that debt when I busted my butt, moved to another state because homes were too expensive in CA, and so forth to buy a home on a 30yr fixed, conforming loan because I knew how completely stupid people were to use ARMs, etc and instead of letting the banks take a big suck on those notes... there goes my hard earned tax dollars to fix those loans. Tax dollars that essentially support my industry, so watch me lose my home cuz I lose my job while the gov't uses money they should use on tech to bail out banks that hung themselves and of all people should KNOW better.

While getting my MBA at UCLA, around 2002 or early 2003 a gal from Countrywide came into my fixed income class - the only thing they were hiring was RISK ANALYSIS because they were trying to figure out how much risk was really assoc with those BS loans. Yet sold them right up until BK last year... you gonna tell me that there isn't something criminal to that??? They KNEW by 02, and really knew all along (how could you not!) that debt was very risky and were trying to game how much they were going to win v. lose with risk analysis. That gambling is fine in the markets, but why the gov't starts bailing out banks for gambling... WTF is with that!?

My 10yr plan of looking outside of the US has become a 5 yr plan, and if my job goes away, maybe a 1 yr plan. Fires me up cuz I know vets all the way back to WWII and one that ended up in a concentration camp fighting for this country and we are giving it all away to the illegals (actually the white m%$# f#@$#@s that employ them) and the stupid. When exactly did capitalism become socialism, in fact communism anyway??? I have no desire to work at my potential so everyone that doesn't can have a piece. If that is how it will be, then I will go elsewhere; somewhere I can reap the benefits of the socialism I pay into.

wow, that was a soapbox if I ever saw one :unibrow:

Long story short, the economy IS hurting the hobby. I paid $4 for diesel here in CO the other day and it is more elsewhere, so that alone cuts into how much I spend on other stuff. I have been eating at home more too (fiancee works in restaurants and they are slowing down too BTW). I didn't race a couple weeks ago just out of concern for spending $500 on a one day deal ($150 just fuel in the truck as it is a tank down and back).


A twisted soapbox yes
But everyone has their own view, and I am glad to hear it.

I am an Economist so don't get me started.

By the way, the soapbox of Hillary and O'bama seem to end in happy times with everyone holding hands and singing 'cum ba ya'. They have the answer to make everything rosy again, so don't worry the election is only months away. Everything will be fixed and allll better.

Don't mind the bigger government, more taxes. We're from the 'government' and we're here to help you, since you can't help yourself (like we (O'Bama and Hillary on everone else in that circle) went to Harvard, did you?)))

Mick

[surreyboy]

i think with so many nice cars coming out now people are realizing that to pay guys 400k in labour for less then a years work might not be worth the money.Not putting down these shops, they build amazing cars and nobody can tell them to charge 30 bucks an hour when people are willing to pay hundreds.I dont think the high end market for cars will be effected, after all, a bad economy doesnt effect rich people, they always do well.These recent "lower prices" if you can even call them that,reflect a saturated market not a downturn in the economy, imo.

[chrismoe]

Great topic. I am anxious to hear from folks in the car biz. IE..builders, press, etc. I am a car hobbyist. Have been for several years and I love it.

There seems to be many opinions about the current state (and future state) of the economy. "On this had we could be heading into a recession....on the other hand this is just a slight correction". I believe that is where the famous Truman line came from: "What I need is a one handed economist".

Whatever you believe about the economy I think it is hard to argue that building and (especially) buying a nice pro-tour and\or hot rod is done with disposable income. Money that we are OK spending without risk of not being able to pay a bill, feed savings, etc. And, people are simply more cautious today about how they, or if they, spend their disposable income. This has and will continue to effect the hot rod market IMO. The effect is not not all negative. Here is what I mean:

It is possible today to buy a very nice pro-tour and\or hot rod for less then it would have cost to buy the exact same car this time last year. I am driving around in proof of that statement. The quality has not decreased (not that I have seen) but the simple fact is that people are unable and\or unwilling to spend 100K to 200K on a trophy car these days. So, if sellers want to sell, they are selling cheaper. One result is more folks are able to buy into the car hobby. I have a friend that has been sitting on the sidelines of this hobby for years, saying it was cost prohibitive to get into the car hobby. He recently bought a very nice PT Camaro for a song. And, all things considered, the seller felt OK about the sale. And this same seller is now onto his next car project. So, we can count one more member amongst us car guys and car gals.

At the end of the day there are people with money who are going to be willing to pay a lot of money for a high-end build. Just fewer of these people then there was 1 or 2 years ago.

My 2 cents.

Chris

[Fluid Power]

I own an Industrial Distribution company that handles Pneumatic and Hydraulic equipment. We supply basic repair parts to full blown machines. My work for food manufacturing companies has exploded over the last 4-5 years as that industry has gone really high tech. With that being said, I deal with several window manufacturers, automotive and appliance manufacturers as well. The one saving grace for me has been the fall of the dollar. It has made capital goods obscenely inexpensive compared to the European equivalent. The enemy I fought before (moving production overseas) might be the ticket that pulls the rust belt out of the dumps. The machine manufacturers that remain here are lean, mean and understand the global economy..

Jegs is a customer of mine, I will ask next week to see how the business climate is....

An interesting read on China and pricing.

http://www.jimpinto.com/writings/chinapricing.html


Darren

[tgvettes]

byndbad914
Just one comment about your friend, I don't of course know who he is or anything about his business but are you sure the dealers that he has been selling to just haven't gone elsewhere for their business? If you had had 3-4-5 businesses doing the same thing and they all say business is down I would totally agree with you but having one business loosing a lot of their revenue might not be enough to say business in general is down in that particular industry.
chrismoe,
Totally agree with what you are saying, my comment on that would be that people should be more careful with how much money they spend on something. I used to buy my daily drivers with almost nothing down, but my next car I will at least put 30-40% down on. I would not again buy a car if I can't put a lot down on it.

Tonny

[byndbad914]

he has more than just a couple of dealers he works with, so for them to all go elsewhere doesn't completely add up, but is always possible (can't be ruled out). He has had long term relationships with them so I doubt they would all just up and somehow make the same decision at the same time tho'.

But when I hear that from him, sales drops from my friend in the perf supplier market and now another friend has a Dad that works auto sales and he said it has been slower in recent months too for him. Three different people assoc with either the auto sales market or aftermarket and they are seeing a drop may not be a global representation by any means, but a trend IMO.

It'll be interesting to see if Jeg's gives an answer or not. Even then, hard to say how true the statements are in a biz relationship... the ones I mentioned are personal relationships so I know I am getting the real story there and no generalizations. Most biz owners are smart enough to keep tight lipped about financial issues with the public so it would be in Jeg's best interest to not say things are bad even if they truly are.

[ProTouring442]

So if industry moves manufacturing to non-US - and I think it's inevatable (God BLESS Vic on his stance and determination - it will be a tough road for sure) - will labor have to do the same ? Example: the US Auto manufacturing industry in standing on the cliff right now due to it's labor and benefits costs - will the US resolve to keep it here and pay the price (I say not likely) - or buy global companies cars.

Will pro shops start using contracted labor like other industries (verses internal) and will/can it ever be on a global level. (I'll leave out the home hobby guys - because, well we'll do stuff even when it will lose money in a big way - ME included...)

Is the car culture limited to a few countries - making it a small market that won't get targeted (G/PT types being an even small component of the overall culture - maybe hot rodding would go first, if at all) How about some of our member from non-US jumping in who are doing G/PT cars there. I'd be interested in what additional costs they see - even while they buy US cars and products and incure the shipping too.

Maybe SEMA and other assns are already discussing this stuff. Is there a member here from one of those ?

Great topic - Man I could talk about this one all day...

Here's an interesting read - look for the story on SkyBus. Talk about reducing/removing costs. Almost no employees beyond the Board and a few key internal indivuduals. Everything was leased and/or contracted out resulting in a true virtual airline model. It recently failed due to (the ecomomy) energy costs.

Do not forget, however, that with the reduction of the value of the dollar against most foreign currencies, the price of overseas labor just increased significantly. In many cases, it just doubled.

This holds true for the price of gas/diesel. If the dollar is only worth approximately 50% of what it was worth 1 year ago, then the price of oil is relatively the same as a year ago, as is the price of fuel. By keeping the dollar low, but holding inflation at a minimum, the Fed is applying a de facto import tariff on overseas goods.

Shiny Side Up!
Bill

[Fluid Power]

"It'll be interesting to see if Jeg's gives an answer or not. Even then, hard to say how true the statements are in a biz relationship... the ones I mentioned are personal relationships so I know I am getting the real story there and no generalizations. Most biz owners are smart enough to keep tight lipped about financial issues with the public so it would be in Jeg's best interest to not say things are bad even if they truly are."

I will leave it at the guy I know at Jegs will be very honest with me....:unibrow:

Darren

[jeff s]

As a business owner, It depends on who your customer base is.
I've got a european customer spending $10,000 each way to ship his car by air freight to me real soon.
Diversification of your business helps.
The dollar being down helped my overseas sales some last year.
In 2007 I did more business with 2 customers in the Czech republic than I did with all of my customers in Chicagoland. My hourly shop rate is the same for all customers (and a lot cheaper than the pontiac dealer across the street).
I experienced huge growth last year and this year is looking good too.

Here's few tips to save on gas, turn your freaking car off when waiting in line at the drive throughs, railroad crossing gates, etc. maybe dont use your remote start 10 minutes before you leave and your average mpg will go up a lot! I park my truck at the shop and commute on my motorcycle.
Also why is everybody ok with spending $10 a gallon on water that you can get for free?
Thanks

[rocketman]

If we all keeping buying car parts, new cars, houses, hell just weekly trips to Wal-Mart buy your kid a new toy, you a new shirt whatever there wont be any economy problems the wrong thing to right is save alot of money(yeah save alittle), the money in this flows in a big circle if it stops anywhere the problems start. and as americans stop listening to all the BS on TV, and live life.

[bill amsley]

I don't think the media is really BSing that much. Sure, I am amazed at what gets sensationalized and how, but that said, relevant to this hobby:

one friend does accessory sales and installs in SoCal and had a ton of dealers as clients. He says he has hardly made a dime since Oct!!! (just talked to him a couple days ago) and that as far as car sales goes, no extras whatsoever and it seems that everyone is buying the cheapest, smallest ****box cars due to fuel prices.

Another has a performance sales biz that does pretty darn well with nationwide sales (and some international). I withhold the name as many here may know the place. Anyway, Jan and Feb are his worst months at around $120K gross sales with typical monthly sales around $180K-$200K. This Jan was down over 70%!!! Feb was down 50%!! March was shaping up to be pretty weak as well (talked to him right at the end of the month and it wasn't looking great). So he is REALLY seeing the affects.

As for me I work in aerospace and my job is questionable at this point. It is starting to feel like the early to mid-90s when nobody in that industry could find a job. Gov't is cutting spending in the BILLIONS which is big cuts in that industry. In my tiny section of LockMart (300 people in the group) there were 9 of us in my area of expertise, there are 4 now since Jan due to work being cut and I am the next guy on the block. The other 3 are looking for work that appears steady, so they may dwindle down by attrition anyway, but point is we HALVED our staff in 3 months, one guy senior to me runs out of work in about 3 months as his current program finishes, and my charge # is 'til about August or so and rumors of cuts to that are looking to not be rumors at all as of last week.

So get ready folks, things are going to get worse before they get better IMO. We are in a war that we can never finish, Standard & Poor and Moody were allowed to rate essentially junk debt at A grade and yet there are no repercussions to them (some people should be going to jail for rating debt that was mostly sub-prime notes at 100%+ value borrowed at A-grades, there were hands in pockets there), then you have the gov't spending even more of our tax dollars bailing out a potential $29 BILLION dollars of that debt when I busted my butt, moved to another state because homes were too expensive in CA, and so forth to buy a home on a 30yr fixed, conforming loan because I knew how completely stupid people were to use ARMs, etc and instead of letting the banks take a big suck on those notes... there goes my hard earned tax dollars to fix those loans. Tax dollars that essentially support my industry, so watch me lose my home cuz I lose my job while the gov't uses money they should use on tech to bail out banks that hung themselves and of all people should KNOW better.

While getting my MBA at UCLA, around 2002 or early 2003 a gal from Countrywide came into my fixed income class - the only thing they were hiring was RISK ANALYSIS because they were trying to figure out how much risk was really assoc with those BS loans. Yet sold them right up until BK last year... you gonna tell me that there isn't something criminal to that??? They KNEW by 02, and really knew all along (how could you not!) that debt was very risky and were trying to game how much they were going to win v. lose with risk analysis. That gambling is fine in the markets, but why the gov't starts bailing out banks for gambling... WTF is with that!?

My 10yr plan of looking outside of the US has become a 5 yr plan, and if my job goes away, maybe a 1 yr plan. Fires me up cuz I know vets all the way back to WWII and one that ended up in a concentration camp fighting for this country and we are giving it all away to the illegals (actually the white m%$# f#@$#@s that employ them) and the stupid. When exactly did capitalism become socialism, in fact communism anyway??? I have no desire to work at my potential so everyone that doesn't can have a piece. If that is how it will be, then I will go elsewhere; somewhere I can reap the benefits of the socialism I pay into.

wow, that was a soapbox if I ever saw one :unibrow:

Long story short, the economy IS hurting the hobby. I paid $4 for diesel here in CO the other day and it is more elsewhere, so that alone cuts into how much I spend on other stuff. I have been eating at home more too (fiancee works in restaurants and they are slowing down too BTW). I didn't race a couple weeks ago just out of concern for spending $500 on a one day deal ($150 just fuel in the truck as it is a tank down and back).

wow that was pretty intense, but right on the money. i think the reAL problem is with our weak dollar. bill

[Garage Dog 65]

Heard today that analyst expect oil at $200 barrel by the end of the year. The trickle down of that increase into all things oil (and supported by oil) will increase right along with it. That will put a real crimp in the car hobby.

I'm planning to run my Porsche 356G on switch grass..... :yes:

I also heard today that Toyota is now officially the largest auto manufacture.

Jim

[sniper]

Heard today that analyst expect oil at $200 barrel by the end of the year. The trickle down of that increase into all things oil (and supported by oil) will increase right along with it. That will put a real crimp in the car hobby.


Not to blame a party but Since Pelosi promised to reduce the cost of fuel in and around the 06' election, oil prices have risen nearly 70%.

While there are many mitigating factors for the cost of oiland fuel, american politics are screwing us over royaly, from oil prices and a lack of refineries to being abstinent on nuclear power.

[ProTouring442]

Not to blame a party but Since Pelosi promised to reduce the cost of fuel in and around the 06' election, oil prices have risen nearly 70%.

While there are many mitigating factors for the cost of oil and fuel, American politics are screwing us over royally, from oil prices and a lack of refineries to being abstinent on nuclear power.

On the other hand, a recent article in The Economist points out that crude oil prices, when corrected for various inflationary factors, still has a long way to go to reach the previous high set in 1980. According to a study conducted by Deutsche Bank, crude prices will need to be somewhere between $134 to $150 per barrel to beat the 1980 High.

The biggest culprit in the US lack of reasonable growth in energy production, those who have so vigorously pushed the scare of "uncontrolled man-made global warming" have probably done the most harm. With recent policy discussions, as well as actual policy, centering on our reduction of fossil fuel dependence, you can hardly blame industry for their lack of enthusiasm for increased investment in production capability.

Radical environmental groups continue to block nearly every form of energy production, including so-called "green" energy such as wind and solar. Add to this their previous failures at policy influence regarding the previous CAFE standards that led to the SUV craze, as well as the standards for low-sulfur diesel and its impact on the US diesel market and it is not hard to see why we should marginalize these voices rather than cling to their rhetoric. Even today, much of the rise in food prices can be attributed to the push for bio-fuels and the conversion of too-large a percentage of world food production sources to bio-fuel crops.

In the end of course, we need to take a balanced approach. However to do so will require complex policies that encourage existing industries to diversify their energy production processes. Oil is and will continue to be a vital raw material in the US economy as it is not only a nearly irreplaceable energy source, but also the source of many other products from plastics and solvents to medicines, the price of which is dependent upon the oil futures market.

Shiny Side Up!
Bill

[T Bell]

protouring442, you bring up a lot of good valid points. You got any references? Not calling you on it but I'd like to see some of the info you've read or heard.

[Garage Dog 65]

Hi T Bell,

I've read and heard the same info that Bill referenced. The Economist reports on a lot of this kinda info - so check there for same. The national media and the sunday political shows have also recently reported the same stuff.

I live here in the mid-west and both my uncles are corns/bean farmers. Lots of the corn is being put into ethanol production - and pulled away from other uses. Indiana (where I live) alone has something like 42 new ethanol production facilities using almost everything we can produce here in Indiana and the surounding states. Both my uncles have had record profits for their grain these past 2 years. (neither one of them believes that ethanol is the solution to our problems - and is just making the food issue a bigger problem)

And there is also the effect that China currently has on oil prices. They project they will use 30% more oil just this year alone as they increase their manufacturing facilities and industry. And since OPEC has stated they will not increase the supply - that will greatly effect the availabilty and push prices to the 200/barrel mark as projected this weekend.

Bring on Hydrogen and those fuel cells !!!!! (IMO - the rest of these solutions are just short term steps)

Jim

[byndbad914]

... to being abstinent on nuclear power.
Oh jeez man, don't get me started on that one! I am right there with you... I still see bumper stickers around here that say split wood not atoms - dumbsh!ts. It is amazing just how clueless this society is in general about nuclear power being essentially a big nuclear warhead ready to go off :rolleyes: or somehow being worse for the environment than coal.

Search out how much of this country's energy is derived from fricken coal for crying out loud (especially bad here in CO and I was blown away after I moved here to realize how much of it is coal energy). Roughly a fourth of the nations energy and some sources claim almost 90% of the Rocky Mountain region's energy is from burning coal :wow:

Weren't we over that about 100 years ago!

And along with Bill's notation about everything relying on petroleum, a quote I ran across double checking the stat on the CO useage of coal
"I'd love for you to tell everybody that we're all in the oil business," says Tom Wilmeth, a retired oil industry worker cited in the report. "Sometime, if you can, sit down and name 10 things that aren't petroleum related. Everything in this room is petroleum related. It took petroleum to bring it to us for us to enjoy. People just don't realize."

edit - forgot about the corn ethanol thing - another farce I shouldn't get started on. What a joke that has been played on this society. Even the price of beer is going up because farmers that would grow hops are changing over to corn to make a fuel that is worse that just burning gasoline when it is said and done from production to higher volume required to make the same power. Burning corn makes as much sense to me as burning coal. The only potential for E85 is if cars start coming out at 14:1 compression (or whatever the highest CR that mixed alcohol fuel is good for) as the efficiency of an engine can be tied 100% to CR. Figure out a way to essentially inject it like a diesel engine so it has no butterfly and efficiency will increase even more (as a gas engine is max efficiency at WOT because the throttle restriction is removed - diesels have no restriction). Then maybe, somehow it would be better to burn corn.

Ultra low sulfur diesel is about the only decent step in the right direction this country has made in decades IMO. If we worked on highly efficient turbo diesel hybrids with onboard regenerative systems I would think we were onto something for a real, near-term fix for pollution, fuel dependency, etc. My dad had a 1984 Ford Escort diesel that got 55mpg around town and 57 highway. No turbo so somewhat gutless and being a small 4-cyl in 1984 somewhat new technology in a small package (alum head IIRC) trying to get the weight down for small car useage, but 55mpg. With high pressure injection, huge advancements in electronic engine mgmt, way more efficient engine and turbo designs, etc etc. we should be there no problem in a Ford Focus. Add a hybrid concept and not get 75mpg someone stepped on their ding ding.

But not in this country. That car lasted one year (only made in 1984) and was clearly just too efficient for the US. Look at how many "World" cars are diesel v. gas. Finally we are starting to get some VWs and so forth with TDIs over here with the increasing fuel costs. Too bad VWs are such POS or I would consider it for my fiancee's next car.